Find out what outlook sportsbooks have taken on this matchup and where we feel the value NFL pick is to be had.
Buffalo Bills (3-6, 2-3 home)
Buffalo Bills are coming off a heartbreaking 23-13 defeat to Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, a result that marked Chiefs’ ninth straight victory on the season to maintain a perfect record in NFL betting so far.
Pundits and experts alike are flummoxed by Kanasas’ brilliant start, going so far as to suggest the only thing perfect about them is their record. Arguing issues can be found everywhere – defense can be porous on occasion, offense a tad pedestrian. In fact, these aspects combined in football betting markets to serve up a rather tight betting spread for the game between Bills and Chiefs with the latter tipped notionally only four-points better.
Surprisingly, for awhile Bills seemed to be making the odds makers’ case rather easily, racing to an early lead in the first quarter and then holding on to it to take a 10-3 lead into the locker room at half time. But they couldn’t finish it. Largely down to costly mistakes 3 turnovers, a fumble, 2 interceptions including a game changing pick 6. And so Chiefs came through on their -185 odds to win straight up and covered the four-point spread quite convincingly, as we’d predicted in our Weekly NFL Sharp Bets instalment)
Buffalo Bills are 5-4-0 ATS going into week 10; 4-1-0 at home, 1-3-0 on the road
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6, 1-2 home)
Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t making the grade this season. Heck, if one were to give them an actual grade it would be a FAIL, particularly after the debacle of historic proportions that was Week 9 when they lost to the New England Patriots 55-31, a tilt that according to the 5 ½ -point spread it finally settled on at sportsbooks was expected to be a much closer affair. [http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nfl-football/free-picks/nfl-picks-steelers-vs-patriots-a-34539/].
Too many mistakes, turnovers and a perceptible lack of focus from top to bottom against one of the Super bowl odds-on-favourites as well as one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the game today cost Steelers dearly, at times even reduced them to the level of clueless sophomores.
Tom Brady and Co. seemed to ride roughshod over them as they went on to score the most points in an NFL game this season. The star quarterback who was rather modest through his first eight games– at least by his lofty standards – had his best game of the season, going 23-33 for 432 yards while throwing 4 touchdown passes.
Tale told, it’s back to the drawing board for Steelers as they attempt to avoid a seventh loss on the season and, at the same time, snap a two-game losing streak against the Buffalo Bills in week 10 NFL betting.
Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-6-0 ATS going into Week 10; 1-2-0 at home, 1-4-0 on the road
Bills +140 (+3.0, -110) @ Steelers -160 (-3.0 , -110)
Betting Preview and Picks
Not to take anything away from Kansas City Chiefs – 9-0 on the season speaks for itself – but, admittedly, Bills (*coughJeffTuelcough*) tossed the game away. If Bills had played four quarters the way they played the first half, they might have actually won, becoming the first team to beat Kansas on the season. Coulda, woulda, shoulda....
There is a silver lining for Bills however and that is their future looks bright. Offense is averaging 21 points and 344.7 yards with a minus one turnover ratio and the run game has improved tremendously of late; Jackson and Spiller posted 241 rushing yards against Kansas, combining to lift Buffalo to sixth place in the NFL ranks with 145.8 rushing yards per game. As well, good news comes in reports that EJ Manuel is cleared to return. Whether he starts on Sunday against Steelers is another matter entirely. We won’t know if he will until later in the week but if he does the complexion of this game will change.
On the flipside of the coin, Steelers have a whole slew of problems none of which appears fixable in a week’s time. Worst of all, it remains to be seen whether they can bounce back from the disembowelling they received last week. This is one of their worst seasons in recent memory; a far cry from Steelers of old that many had become accustomed to over the years. Offense is averaging less than 20 points per game, 341.8 yards and they are minus 11 in turnover ratio. It doesn’t look good.
NFL Free Picks: Clearly, the expectation is that Steelers, at -160 NFL odds SU, are going to bounce back against Bills, another AFC straggler and to some respects we do agree. But if Manuel starts, Bills all of a sudden look better, practically leaping off the page as the smart NFL pick to at least cover if not win straight up. For our money, we’re going with the upset win at +140 simply because the Bills seem to have just a bit more going for them than the Steelers do right now.
NFL Free Picks: Bills to win straight up +140