NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets

Joe Freda

Wednesday, September 18, 2013 2:27 PM GMT

Sunday’s NFL betting has the AFC East foes meeting at MetLife Stadium, where the OVER is 4-1 in the rivals’ last five matchups. 

 

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills have played their share of close contests over the NFL season’s first two weeks, with each team cashing at 2-0 ATS. 

Jets, Smith edged at Gillette

New York came away with its first loss in last Thursday’s 13-10 defeat to the New England Patriots, while collecting as a 10 ½-point road dog. The Jets gave up an early touchdown in New England’s first drive, followed by allowing a 0-for-3 night in the Patriots’ trio of red zone trips.

Jets quarterback Geno Smith connected 15-of-35 passes, while tossing three interceptions. New York’s Bilal Powell took in his side’s sole touchdown from three yards out, finishing with 3.7 YPR on 13 carries.

New York’s offensive line allowed four sacks, while Smith and Co. moved the chains for 15 first downs as part of 34 minutes of possession. The Jets were flagged for eight penalties, totaling 66 yards, while the duel’s combined 23 points plunged UNDER the ‘total’ of 43.

Bills rally past Panthers

Buffalo erased a late eight-point deficit for Sunday’s 24-23 win over the Carolina Panthers, pulling out an upset as a 3 ½-point home dog. Bills wide out Stevie Johnson notched 111 receiving yards on eight catches, while reaching the end zone with two seconds remaining for his club’s victory.

Buffalo’s E.J. Manuel completed 27-of-39 attempts under center, finishing with 296 yards through the air. Bills running back C.J. Spiller dashed for a season-high 103 yards, while backfield mate Fred Jackson brought in one touchdown as part of 12 carries.

The Bills’ defense held Carolina to 308 total yards, with Mario Williams and Kiko Alonso uniting for 5 ½ sacks. Alonso added an interception to his day’s tally, while the matchup’s combined 47 points jumped OVER the ‘total’ of 43 ½.

William Hill opened New York as a 2 ½-point home NFL odds favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 39. The weather forecast in northern New Jersey calls for a 72 degree day, with a 40 percent chance of rain.

I am adding Buffalo as a road dog, taking the points as part of Sunday’s NFL picks.

The Bills bounced back from Week 1’s 23-21 loss to New England with last Sunday’s comeback victory, which should give Manuel and Co. some resurging momentum here. Buffalo’s running game ranks fourth in the league (142.5 YPG), while cashing at 5-2 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the Jets.

New York has been held to 14 PPG in its first two weeks of action, while ranking 25th in total yardage (311 YPG) despite winning the time of possession in both matchups. Rex Ryan’s club has a 1-5 spread mark in its last six contests that followed a defeat, while going 2-5 ATS in its last seven matchups on turf.

Look for another low-octane afternoon from the Jets, while Buffalo adds another cashed ticket to its 4-1 spread mark in the team’s last five duels with AFC East rivals.

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NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills + 2 ½ at William Hill