Buffalo Bills season wins future odds update
We've already been through the Bills’ odds to win the Super Bowl, but let's took a look at a more reasonable future odds bet, their season wins total. LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Bills at 6 ½ wins this season, with the over being quite profitable at +115, while the under is at -135. Buffalo could be a moneymaking machine this season if they get to seven or more wins, so let’s take a deeper look into their schedule and decide whether or not they have value.
We are going to get a quick taste of what the Buffalo Bills are going to look like this season, because they welcome in New England in Week 1 of the season. Their bye isn’t until Week 12, and even though they play the NFC South and AFC North this season, I think there might be some value betting the over in Buffalo this season. They are going through a coaching transition, which might hurt them in the short term. However if they can bring together some of the talent on their roster, I think there could be seven wins on their schedule. They finish the season at Jacksonville, home against Miami, and then Week 17 at a likely resting New England. I could see the Bills rally off three straight or 2-3 to end the season and cash the over for our NFL picks.
Week 1 of the season however is a completely different story. New England is only a -7 favorite on the road in Buffalo in Week 1 with a total of 53. With the Bills likely still in the learning curve by the time Week 1 gets here, I see great value with New England in Week 1. The Pats were 3-2-1 ATS a season ago as road favorites, and Buffalo was 0-2 ATS as home underdogs in 2012.
Although I sincerely doubt the Pats blast the Bills like they did a season ago or the many times before that, I do see New England winning and covering in this one. The Pats are 3-1-1 ATS and 4-1 SU in their last five trips to Buffalo.
The Sharp Pick
For the Bills, the loss of George Wilson and the switch to a 3-4 from a 4-3 is going to be challenging at first, but I like the team as a whole, and I think they could surprise some people late in the season if it all falls into place. I see a small amount of value with the Bills this season on the over, just as long as their quarterback situation is in order. If Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel can get the ball to the multitude of weapons they have, a 7-9 or 8-8 SU season is not that farfetched.
My Pick: OVER 6 ½ +115
Week 1 Leans: Patriots -7 & UNDER 53 at Will Hill