NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills NFL Futures Betting

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, April 30, 2013 7:03 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 30, 2013 7:03 PM UTC

Even though they are almost completely rebuilding the franchise, the Bills could have some value this season, but it wont be in the NFL future odds market.

                                                     Books with the best prices on 2013-14 NFL Futures

The Bills might be building for the future, but let’s take a look at their future NFL odds anyways, to gauge whether or not they might be overvalued in a game-to-game basis.

For more of our thoughts on this year's future odds check out our NFL picks page.

Super Bowl (+10,000) 

While bringing in Kevin Kolb looks to have been their stop gap measure in Buffalo, it seems as if there is more than just a few people not sold on the 16th overall pick either, EJ Manuel. However, for as many people that don’t like him, there are some calling him the pick of the draft, so who knows. I know that the Bills are probably a little overvalued in the Super Bowl odds, but at this point in the offseason, there is plenty of time for things to change. Until then, we also need to see how this team looks by the time the preseason rolls around, to better get an idea of how they might perform in the games that count. 

AFC (+4500)

Once again, the Bills are fairly priced here, as only two teams have a worse implied probability than the Bills to win the entire AFC. Considering the Jaguars are +6600 at Bet365, I don’t think the Bills should be any higher or lower. If Manuel starts for none, some, most or all of this season, it shouldn’t have too much of an effect on their season. This team has some holes that seem to not have been filled up yet.

Also check out our AFC East Division preview.

My Take

The Bills have made some strides this season, especially on defense. They signed Manny Lawson from Cincinnati, and brought over Alan Branch from Seattle. However even though I expect their defense to be slightly improved from last season, their offense is such a big wildcard that it’s hard to see them having any consistent or even predictable value. 

I could be wrong. Hey, they might not even the worse team in the division if the Jets are as bad as I think they are going to be. The key for this team will be what Nathaniel Hackett and head coach Doug Marrone can do with this offense this season. You obviously have a pair of weapons in he backfield in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, but what will become of the passing game? 

Assuming they try to being along Manuel slow, I expect Kolb to start the season as the starter. Whether or not that proves successful or not really depends on the coaching. In my eyes, an unproven commodity is just as bad or worse than a known bad commodity, so putting faith or even money on the line backing the Bills is foolish at this point of the offseason.

I will say this, there is a lot of new head coaches in the NFL, and when the preseason comes at the end of the summer, expect the teams with new head coaches to try and win games in the preseason. That might be the first chance you have at getting some value when backing Buffalo with your NFL picks this season.

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