When a market is sooo one-sided, the only question of importance to NFL bettors: is there value to be had at all? Join us as we breakdown the odds and deliver our verdict.
Betting on the winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7, 0-3 away) are in a right mess right now and seemingly hopeless to stop the rot. They are winless on the season, struggling with a new quarterback at the helm since Josh Freeman got the boot and have the dubious honour of being one of the worst offerings this season according to the stats –only the Jaguars are worse (barely a consolation though that is). And unfortunately for them, the future continues to look grim as their skid is expected to extend through week 9 if the NFL betting odds were any indication with an away victory tipped at staggering +850 odds, or therein across all sportsbooks.
The high-flying Hawks (7-1, 3-0 home) have made winning a habit – bad or good? Depends on where your loyalties lie and what your perspective is, really. What is obvious though is that they are expected to win yet another game with NFL odds listed in the quadruple digits – Bet365 is offering a Seattle win at a whopping -1400 on the moneyline. Hardly surprising when you consider the matchups here: the No.2 vs. No. 31 ranked side, rising star QB Russell Wilson vs. rookie QB Mike Glennon, said rookie against the Seahawks’ defense (yikes, something that is rather scary).
NFL Betting Verdict
From experts to fans alike, nothing but a Seattle win is expected. However, odds that run so high are simply just not worth a stake – it’s like throwing water into the ocean, the return on investment meagre. So while we do agree with the popular opinion that Seattle is the right NFL pick here, our advice, if you are looking to make a sports bet on this game, is to avoid the moneyline entirely and turn to the spread or totals.
Of course anything can happen on any given Sunday, even the unthinkable. An upset win, tempting football odds though they might be, would mark the biggest upset of the season by a country mile simply because nobody is predicting it. The probability of such an NFL pick that admittedly rests heavily on trusting a rookie to come through is slim to none, not for the fainthearted sports bettor.
Free Pick: Seattle to win outright but a pass on betting.
Buccaneers +16.5 @ Hawks -16.5; Over/Under 40
Analysis: These lines come across a bit too steep, don’t you think? Granted, odds makers are colouring this game a blowout with moneyline odds that completely corner this game in Seahawk’s camp. But fact is, Seahawks, against the spread and totals, haven’t always paid dividends – they are 5-3 ATS, 2-1 at home this season and 4-4 on the O/U. This means that there is value to be had backing the Buccaneers after all, if you are so inclined.
That notion gains momentum when you consider the fact that the Hawks will be without WR Sydney Rice who is sidelined due to injury. A huge loss compounded by the fact that Percy Harvin still may not be available for Sunday’s game (if he is though, he might not be effective enough right off the bat).
Last week the Hawks struggled to stave off the St. Louis Rams in a dull 14-9 victory. Wilson put up some meagre numbers going 10 of 18 for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns, marking one of the lowest offense outputs in franchise history since gaining 128 yards in a 27-3 loss to Arizona on four years ago. Taking a page from that game, this upcoming clash against the Buccaneers could go similarly and that’s why we’re backing the Bucs on the spread and looking at a low overall total.
Free NFL Picks: Buccaneers to cover at +16.5 and Under 40 for the game totals.