NFL Picks: Buccaneers vs. Falcons in Week 7

Joe Freda

Tuesday, October 15, 2013 2:12 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2013 2:12 PM GMT

Sunday’s slate has NFC South rivals the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clashing at the Georgia Dome.

Our daily NFL Week 7 coverage continues with our NFL Week 7 Betting Odds Report!

The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have both struggled at NFL betting windows, collecting at a combined 2-8 ATS through their five weeks of action. 

Bucs continue sliding

Tampa Bay stayed winless in last week’s 31-20 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles, falling as a 2.5-point home dog. The Buccaneers were flagged for eight penalties (72 yards), while surrendering 425 total yards and a pair of touchdowns in Philadelphia’s three red zone trips.

Bucs quarterback Mike Glennon found wide Vincent Jackson for nine receptions, including two scoring strikes in the team’s 34 minutes of possession. Glennon finished with 273 passing yards, connecting 26-of-43 attempts.

Tampa Bay’s Lavonte David registered his side’s sole sack, while logging a team-high nine tackles. The duel’s combined 51 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 44.5, ending a 4-0 ‘Under’ streak from the Buccaneers’ prior month of contests.

Falcons edged at home

Atlanta has been idle since October 7th, dropping a 30-28 battle as 10-point home ‘chalk’ to the New York Jets. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan tossed a three-yard score to Levine Toilolo, taking a late 28-27 lead, while New York answered back with a game-winning field goal.

Ryan completed 36-of-45 passes, finishing with 319 yards through the air. Atlanta’s Jacquizz Rodgers took in two touchdowns from the backfield, notching 43 rushing yards on 14 carries.

The contest’s combined 58 points leaped ‘Over’ the ‘total’ of 45, while Falcons end Osi Umenyiora logged two of his squad’s four sacks. Ryan and Co. moved the sticks for 26 first downs, controlling the ball for 35 minutes of possession.

Back the ‘Over’ in Atlanta

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Atlanta opened as a seven-point home favorite in the NFL odds, while the ‘total’ was first set at 41.5. Early wagers on the Falcons and ‘Over’ lifted the numbers to 7.5 and 42.5, respectively.

I am tailing the initial movement here, backing the ‘Over’ as part of my week’s NFL picks.

Atlanta has notched 27.3 PPG in its three contests at Georgia Dome, while the ‘Over’ is 2-1 in the last three meetings between these foes hosted by the Falcons. Matt Ryan has led his offense to convert third downs at a 44.3 percent clip (27-for-61), ranking third in the NFC.

Tampa Bay played its highest-octane affair of the year in last week’s defeat, with Mike Glennon showing improvement over his first start. The dome environment will have its noise for the rookie, but will also have its share of favorable ball movement compared to Tampa Bay’s grass at “Ray Jay.”

Atlanta has given up 26.8 PPG and 274.8 YPG of passing, ranking a lowly 25th and 26th in the league, respectively. The ‘Over’ is 11-2-2 in the Falcons’ last 15 spots with a ‘total’ of 43.5 or less, dating back to the 2010 season.

For your sports picks, look for the ‘Over’ to cash again here in a value spot, with both sides looking to pile on points.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Bucs/Falcons game OVER 42 points, at Ladbrokes

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