NFL Picks: Buccaneers are Best Value Bet on Board for Week 10

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 15, 2015 1:52 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 15, 2015 1:52 PM GMT

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue their march toward respectability this Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, who are 1-6 against the NFL odds without Tony Romo.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 13: 31-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total
 

So much value, so little time. Betting on the league's worst teams is a great way to make some money – provided those teams aren't actually as bad as their records suggest. And provided the betting public isn't aware of this fact. We're all getting a little bit sharper, thanks to the Interwebs and, you know, basic evolutionary principles. The more people know, the smaller profit margins get.

Good thing so many people are happy to believe whatever hot take entertains them most. When you look at our five BeeVee nominees for Week 10 – that's the Best Value on our NFL odds board – you'll see five of the least respected teams in the league. Wearing one of their jerseys in public will mark you as a social pariah, even in your own hometown. Small children will point at you and cry while their mothers hustle them away. And the nominees are...

Detroit +10.5 at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Dallas at Tampa Bay –1 (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Chicago +6.5 at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Jacksonville +5 at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Kansas City +5 at Denver (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

Jeeves, the envelope, please... and the winners are... the Tampa Bay Buccaneers! Here to accept the BeeVee award are team co-charimen Bryan, Joel and Edward Glazer, who... hold on, I'm being told that the Glazers are unable to get into the building, they're being held back by Manchester United supporters. We'll make sure the BeeVee gets to the right debt-collection agency.
 

Welcome to the Crab Shack
All five of our nominees are losing teams going into the second half of the regular season. The Buccaneers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) didn't put up the best efficiency numbers out of this group, not even close – that would be the Chiefs. But Tampa Bay might have the biggest upside of them all, and that upside is already being manifest. QB Jameis Winston has played much better since struggling through the first four games; he's not out of the woods yet, but Winston's chances of going busto are falling with every competent performance.

The Bucs also happen to be playing a 2-6 SU and ATS Cowboys team that's only two spots ahead of Tampa on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders. Dallas ranks No. 23 through Week 9; those efficiency-based stats include Tony Romo's body of work during the first two games of the season. Things haven't been the same since. There's been some bad luck along the way, including a pair of overtime losses, but Dallas is melting down before our very eyes, and now LB Sean Lee has a concussion and probably won't play on Sunday. It's one of the easier NFL picks we'll get to make this year.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Buccaneers PK at Youwager

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