NFL Picks Browns vs. Jets: Two Teams Full of Uncertainty Lead us to Total Bet

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, September 6, 2015 6:51 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 6, 2015 6:51 PM UTC

Opening week & hope springs eternal even for the struggling franchises Browns and Jets. After reviewing the NFL odds we have found an exotic way to bet both teams.

Jets Slight Edge
Maybe there's a way they can both lose? Oh right, a tie is almost the same as a loss in the NFL because there are so few of them but I'm thinking the first team to 10 might be the play. These are not good ball clubs but I concede I could be eating those words by year's end - but I doubt it. The Jets have the slight edge here as they are at home and the NFL odds have them currently installed as 2 ½ to 3 point favorites depending upon where you shop.

Here are a few things we know. Whether Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown goes neither one is going to eviscerate the only premier aspect of this Jets team which is of course a retooled secondary. Darrelle Revis is back in green and reunites with Antonio Cromartie who also took a sabbatical from the J-E-T-S Jets last season but is back in the fold. Their pass rush is improved as well therefore this is not a picnic for an opponent with a subpar passing game like the Browns.

However, before we get too carried away we are, after all, talking about the New York Jets being led by a quarterback no one ever heard of until he came out of nowhere to win the starting job after Geno Smith went down from a punch in the face by his own, former teammate. If you love to bet sides and treat totals like a ski parka at the beach then try something a bit exotic. Manufacture a middle by mixing your money line on the favorite with a teaser on the dog.


Create the Middle
Allow me to illustrate a technique that can be useful when you feel a game may be close:

Currently is hanging the best NFL odds money line on the favorite at Jets -140. So, if you are a $100 bettor you will lay $140 to win $100 on the Jets thereby eliminating the spread.

Now grab the best NFL odds you can find on the underdog which is currently Browns +3 at Pinnacle yet again. Put the Browns in a two-team teaser (you get six free points on two sides or two totals or a combination but you must win both to cash) with a team that kicks off at 4:00 PM ET or later. Therefore in this scenario we will use the Browns +9 with the Tennessee Titans +9 (current line is Tennessee +3) over the host Tampa Bay Bucs. There are three scenarios that could play out.

1) Jets wins by more than nine: You will win the Jets money line bet and lose the teaser.

2) Browns win outright: You will lose the money line bet on the Jets but teaser is alive.

3) Jets win by less than nine: You win money line and teaser is alive!

Now if scenarios 2 and 3 pan out I would then get down on the favorite in the Tennessee game which happens to be the Tampa Bay Bucs. I will have the luxury of doing this because I will know the results of the Browns/Jets game before the late games kick.  In order to create the greatest middle possible I would bet the Bucs on the money line and in this case the best line can be found at hanging Tampa Bay at -165. I now have a nine point middle and am hoping the Bucs win by less than nine which means ideally I could win three bets. Let's count them.

Jets on the money line.

Two-team teaser with Browns and Titans.

Bucs on the money line.

This is not a guaranteed way to win but when you have two teams that are ostensibly this close then the chances of a blowout either way are unlikely which is why this arbitrage can work so very well. If you're prone to betting one thing and one thing only I say stay away from either side and go under 40 at in your NFL picks.


Free NFL Picks: Under 40.0 (-110) at BetOnline

comment here