The NFL odds for this matchup between Super Bowl hopefuls favor the Seahawks at -4.5, with a total of 41 points. Who will take this game seriously, and who will throw it for Week 3?
The Broncos played the 49ers in Week 1 and won a low scoring affair, 10-6. Peyton Manning did get in the game for a short amount of time, throwing the ball for 2-4 for only 13 yards passing. While the starters didn’t play long in Week 1, I expect John Fox to give his starters a little more of a run in this game against Seattle. Fox is normally good in Week 1 and worse in Week 2, however that may be reversed this season with the new offensive additions and starting position battles.
The Seahawks played their young offense a bit longer in Week 1, and they could play them the same amount in this game, but I doubt any longer. Russell Wilson played three full series, which spanned into the 2nd quarter, and even though he might play one or two more series in this game, I doubt he lasts all the way to half-time. The Seahawks are dealing with enough injuries right now on offense, and it would kill them if the likes of Wilson or even Marshawn Lynch got hurt.
Who has more to gain?
Seattle doesn’t have much to gain from this game and a lot to lose, especially after they came out and dominated the Chargers in Week 1. Neither team has much to gain, but the Broncos need to integrate Wes Welker more into the offense, and they definitely need to hash out a running back rotation in Denver.
With that being said, I have no idea why the Hawks are so overvalued here, other than people blindly laying points. Two out of every three bets coming in on this game are on the Hawks, but the Broncos taking +4.5 points has a ton of betting value, and I can’t pass it up.
Even though Pete Carroll has a nice preseason record since coming to Seattle, he is much worse after Week 1. In fact, he is now 4-0 SU in Week 1 of the preseason, but only 4-5 SU in the following weeks. I see that trend continuing into this game, and I also see the Broncos out playing the Hawks. Even though I’m taking the points, a money line bet on the Broncos also might be in order here for your sports picks.
The Sharp Pick
Underdogs were 10-6 ATS in Week 1 of the preseason, and I see that trend continuing into this season. On top of that, even though they both have a lot to lose, the Broncos need this game to work on their rotation at running back. The only thing the Hawks could accomplish from this game is getting more injured, and I think Carroll knows that. Don’t expect to see many starters for the Hawks playing too long in this one, with the possible exception of Wilson. For your NFL picks, take the points with the Broncos.
(Again, you may have to buy a half-point, so shop around for the best line)Have a different pick? Share your opinions on our message boards!