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Short week; long night
Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense spent very little time on the field in Week 6, and they were held without a touchdown against a not so good defense. I am surprised I didn’t wake up this morning and see the line for the Broncos and Colts up more than one point. However the Broncos only moved to -6.5 favorites.
I think the young Colts got caught in the dreaded trap game, and I’m sad I didn’t see it before hand. A week after getting a huge win against the Seahawks, and a week before Manning’s return to Indy, the Colts put up a huge dud on the road in Andre Luck’s Monday night debut.
This week they won’t have much time off, as they played last night and will be expected to start watching film as soon as today. With Manning and the Broncos coming in, this is one of the bigger games of the season for the Colts, and even though they have regressed some this past week, I don’t think they will have any problem getting amped up for this week’s games.
While both teams are an even 3-3 ATS this season, when Manning was with the Colts, they owned the Broncos. Denver is 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Colts, and furthermore they are only 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six trips to Indianapolis.
All of this is about to change, as we are in a new era for both of these teams. This season the Broncos are 1-1 ATS on the road, while the Colts are only 1-3 ATS at home. However the Colts are going to be the toughest test to date for the Broncos by far, and with the amount of talent the Colts have played so far this season, we know who the more battle tested team is through six weeks.
Along with being more battle tested, the Colts have been solid as underdogs this season, going 2-1 ATS. Also since the Luck era began in Indianapolis, the Colts are a perfect 5-0 ATS as home underdogs. That makes this spread even more interesting heading into Sunday night. Coincidently, the Broncos aren’t too bad as away favorites either. Since Manning got to Denver, the Broncos are 5-2 ATS as road favorites.
This game is going to boil down to time of possession, and the Colts’ defense. Jerrell Freeman suffered a concussion in last night’s game, and he is one of the better linebackers that Indy has. Their run defense and pass rush depends on him a lot, and if he can’t play it will really hurt Indy. Also for the Colts a huge concern is the health of safety, LaRon Landry, who did not play against the Chargers on Monday.
Make sure you check back later in the week for not only my NFL pick on the total for this game, but the spread as well. Until then check out my NFL Odds updates that come out every morning, giving you an updated look at all of the lines for Week 7 of the NFL regular season.
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