NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Colts Betting the Total

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, October 17, 2013 12:33 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 17, 2013 12:33 PM GMT

In the NFL Week 7 Game of the Week, the Denver Broncos head into Indianapolis to face the Colts; and this game is chock-full of interesting storylines. Peyton Manning’s return to Indy, and two of the AFC’s best squaring off are just a few.

Follow our complete coverage of the Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals NFL Thursday Night Football game! First, check out our Opening Odds Report!

One of the main story lines for this game is the NFL odds, which favor the road Broncos at -6.5. The total is 56 points, and for this one, let’s see if we can find some value with a very large total.

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Caught in trap game

Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense spent very little time on the field in Week 6, and they were held without a touchdown against a not so good defense. They were dominated in the time of possession battle, and Luck spent more time watching his defense tire and his receivers drop passes.

After the big win against Seattle, and before this game we are faced with now, the Colts were caught in the trap. They have learned their lesson going into this game, and they realize that the only way they are going to stop Peyton Manning is to keep him on the side line.

The game plan will likely fall heavily on Trent Richardson, however the young running back has not been looking great since coming to the Colts. Even though I would argue he looked better last week than any week this season, he only had 11 touches in a game where the Colts were trailing all the time.

This week, the Colts are going to try and power run on the Broncos. They are going to try and get into a lot of third and shorts, and if their receivers can catch the ball this week, the Colts will be able to control the clock and keep it close. The Colts are by far the best offense and defense the Broncos have played this season, and it will be even better if LaRon Landry can suit up this week. He practiced for the first time today since Week 2, and if he can play against the Broncos, it will mark a very tough test for Manning. The Colts have arguably the best secondary in the NFL with Landry healthy.

For an alternate view on this game, read Doug Upstone's article Broncos vs. Colts in Week 7!

The Sharp Pick

So far this season, the Colts are 4-2 cashing the under this season, while the Broncos have cashed the over in all six of their games. I think because of this, the sportsbooks are overvaluing the total of this game, and I think the under is the play. Fifty-six points seems very overinflated, because if the Colts have their way, the final score is going to be in the mid-20s for both teams.

The under has cashed in eight of the last ten games for the Colts, and nine of their last 13 games at home. I expect a heavy dose of Richardson in this game for the Colts, and even if the Broncos break out and score 30 points in this game, it’s still reasonable to predict an 'Under" cash here for your NFL picks. I’m seeing a 31-24 game here and the under being the way to go in this one. The total has been going down wince it opened at 56.5, and since it’s already down to 55.5 at some sports betting shops, take 56 points while you still can, and let’s hope for a lower scoring game.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Broncos/Colts game to go UNDER 56 points, at Bet365

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Interested in the rest of Week 7's games? Follow our coverage with our NFL Week 7 Betting Odds Report! 
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