I have already given my pick on the total, but now it’s my pick on the spread, which has increased to -7 in favor of the road Broncos. The NFL Odds are ripe for the taking in this one, so let’s take a brief look at some of the contributing factors to my pick on this one.
First, check out our Opening Odds Report!
While they generally haven’t been as good of a bet as they normally are, home underdogs usually have some great value in the NFL. The Colts have been no exception in the Andrew Luck era. Since the beginning of last season, the Colts are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs, and even with Denver heading into Indy, the Colts have some serious value here at +7 on the NFL odds board.
They are going to try and run the ball on the Broncos for most of this game. They want to run the ball anyways, but the best defense against Peyton Manning is a Colt’s 1st down. The Colts are going to try and dominate the time of possession in this game, and considering they were dominated in that area this past week against the Chargers, I think they learned their time of possession lesson last week, and seemingly the only way to slow down Manning is to keep him on the sideline.
Indianapolis cannot afford to get into a shootout against the Broncos. Even though they have shown they can win a game like that, no one will win a shootout against the Broncos. The key for the Colts will be their secondary, and a big member of that unit looks to be making his return.
LaRon Landry has practiced all week and inserting him with Antoine Bethea at safety is huge for the Colts’ pass defense this week. This is by far the best defense, and secondary especially that the Bronos have played so far this season, and if the Colts can ramp up their run defense as well, I see them covering in this game.
Have you seen how to bet the Total for this game?
The Sharp Pick
The Colts won’t win this game if they don’t hold the Broncos in the low 30s. If they can keep them away from the 40-point mark, they have enough to beat the Broncos’ offense. Even with the return of Von Miller for Denver, I see the Colts playing well enough at home here to get the cover. Not only are they undefeated as home underdogs with Luck as the QB, but the Colts have a great track record against the Broncos.
Even though they had Manning in most of those games, the downgrade to Luck isn’t as bad as this spread suggests. Jerrell Freeman is probable for this game as well for the Colts at linebacker, which is huge for their run defense and pass rush. The Colts have won eight of their last nine home games, and even though I don’t’ see them winning this game outright, I do think they will keep the game within one score. Take the points with Indy here for your NFL picks.
My Pick: Colts +7
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