NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Browns Week 6 O/U Betting Preview & Odds

Kevin Stott

Thursday, October 15, 2015 6:04 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 6:04 PM GMT

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos head to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon to face the host Browns and Josh McCown in this inter-divisional Week 6 AFC showdown.

Odds Overview NFL Week 6 - Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns
Weather: Intervals of Clouds and Sunshine, 48°, Winds NW 15-25 mph, 20% Humidity (TWC)
Current Point Spread: Broncos -4 (Pinnacle) Current High Total in Marketplace: 42½ (Pretty much everywhere Thursday)
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 42 (CG Technology) Alternate Total: Under 38½ +150, Over 38½ -200 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 39 +137, Over 39 -187 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 40 +120, Over 40 -162 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 41 +100, Over 41 -133 (Bet365)
First Half Total: 21 (Betway)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Denver Broncos (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) head east to FirstEnergy Stadium In Cleveland on Sunday afternoon to face the Cleveland Browns (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) in this important AFC inter-divisional tilt from Cleveland. The Total (Points) in this game opened up at 42½ and has stuck there almost all week, although CG Technology and Jerry’s Nugget here in Las Vegas both have a 42 posted this morning (Thursday). The Browns (118 PF-132 PA) avoided a nasty 1-4 start with a dramatic win against the Ravens in Baltimore in OT on Sunday, 33-30, to move to 2-3 as QB Josh McCown had another big game for Cleveland as the Browns starting QB used all his Skill Position guys like Duke Johnson Jr., Isaiah Crowell, Travis Benjamin, Taylor Gabriel and Gary Barnidge in the big win. Now, like last season, the Browns (275/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) and Head Coach Mike Pettine (11-9-1 ATS) are in the thick of the AFC North and maybe the AFC race, but Cleveland needs a win here to get to the .500 mark and that surely will be the mantra in the Browns Locker room. The Broncos (113 PF-79 PA) and QB Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road) have marched undefeated through the first five weeks of their Regular Season schedule, beating the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, the Detroit Lions in Week 3, the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4, and last week, in Week 5, Denver needed a 74-yard Chris Harris Jr. interception return for a TD to stymie a Raiders 4th Quarter drive in Oakland to turn a 9-7 game into a 16-7 score and an eventual 16-10 win to stay unbeaten. And once again, it was the Defense which saved Offensively-punchless Denver. And it’s no coincidence, with the Broncos ranking #1 in Total Yards (278 ypg), #2 in Points Allowed (15.8 ppg) and #5 in the NFL in both Rushing (85.2 ypg) and Passing Defense (192.8 ypg).

But it is very obvious Denver has some problems on Offense, and the experiment to become a more Rush-oriented team under new Head Coach Gary Kubiak by playing around the fading arm strength of the 39-year-old legend Manning seems to be failing. And RBs CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman need to both contribute more in the 1st Halves of games to open up the passing game and make it easier for Manning and the Broncos (12/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) who will be able to cover up many scoring pimples through the play of WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Emmanuel Sanders and new-acquiree TE Owen Daniels (Ravens). Because the Broncos Offense has become so feeble (for now), the athletic Broncos Defense—led by guys like LB Von Miller, CB Aqib Talib (Questionable) and Harris Jr.—has become the team’s Offense of sorts.

Here are the L10 Final Scores between the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns, with site, Total and Totals result. As you can see, the Broncos have W10 straight meetings in this series.

 

Final Scores in the Last 10 Meetings Denver Broncos-Minnesota Vikings Series

2012—@Broncos 34 Browns 12 Total: 44 Result: Over

2009—@ Broncos 27 Browns 6 Total: 38½ Result: Under

2008—Broncos 34 @ Browns 30 Total: 46 Result: Over

2006—Broncos 17 @ Browns 7 Total: 31½ (You read that number right.) Result: Under

2003—@ Broncos 23 Browns 20 (OT) Total: 43 Result: Push

2000—@ Broncos 44 Browns 10 Total: 44 Result: Over

@ Broncos 26 Browns 14 Total: 40 Result: Push

1993—Broncos 29 @ Browns 14 Total: 37 Result: Over

1992—Broncos 12 @ Browns 0 Total: 34 Result: Under

1991—Broncos 17 @ Browns 7 Total: 36 Result: Under

 

Why This Game Should Go Under and Recent Relevant Series Trends
The Final Scores reveal a 4-4-2 Totals record over the L10 meetings between these two teams, but also some Ancient History in that these teams usually meet once every three or so years. (Check out the 31½ Total posted for the meeting in 2006 in Cleveland.) So far this season, Broncos games have seen totals of 33, 55, 36, 43 and 26 total points scored while First Quarters totals (both teams combined) in the 5 Broncos have seen 6, 0, 0, 3 and 0, or a total of just 9 points (all three FGs) and an miniscule scoring average so far of just 1.80 ppq. Shhhhh. Here, Denver is playing a team which it has beat 10 straight times by a healthy average of 14.8 ppg, so with one of the top two Defenses around (Seahawks), the Trends on their side and an unbeaten mark to try to keep intact to keep pace with the New England Patriots (4-0) for the Home advantage in the AFC Playoffs, motivation will be high here for the visitors from the Rocky Mountains—who will lose 2 Body Clock Hours, going from their MDT to EDT—who already have nice Road Wins (and covers) in Kansas City, Detroit and Oakland.

This one should be a tight and close game throughout with a fair amount of punting and FG attempts. As far as Total Trends, Browns Overs are 5-0 while Broncos Overs are 1-4, so whichever unit—Denver’s Defense or Cleveland;s Offense—can control the game should set the tempo and that side should also win (and cover). and even though McCown has been hot these last two games, it’s important to remember that this unbeaten Broncos team will come in expecting the Win, with 10 straight in the series and are already used to playing with a “Defense First” mentality with QB Manning struggling. And who knows how long, and if Denver's talented Defense will have to keep it up.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Broncos 23 Browns 16

NFL WEEK 6 TOTALS PICKS: Under 42½ (Bovada), First Quarter Under

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