NFL Picks: Broncos Offer Best ATS Value on Week 12 Betting Board

Jason Lake

Saturday, November 28, 2015 11:39 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 28, 2015 11:39 PM UTC

They might have their backs against the wall Sunday night, but the Denver Broncos will be the better NFL pick when they welcome the New England Patriots to Mile High.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 28: 43-37-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 24-31 Total

How was your Thanksgiving this year? It was a great day for the books, that's for sure. All that big money that was on the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys? That should make for quite the office party – after the high rollers who bet on the Chicago Bears get paid, that is.

Meanwhile, there are still 13 games left on our Week 13 NFL odds board. We've already covered a few of them, but we still need to crown this week's BeeVee Award winner. Which of our five nominees is the Best Value still on the board? The suspense is killing anyone who hasn't already read the headline for this story. The nominees are:

New Orleans at Houston –3 (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

N.Y. Giants at Washington +2.5 (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

Miami +4 at N.Y. Jets (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

Arizona at San Francisco +11.5 (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)

New England at Denver +2.5 (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

And the winners are... the Denver Broncos! This is a bit of a surprise, but here to accept the BeeVee on behalf of the Bowlen family is GM John Elway, who... what's that? Apparently Elway is deep in negotiations with Tim Tebow for some undisclosed purpose. We'll make sure the award makes it to Mile High in time for Sunday's game.


Brock Samson
So how the heck did the Broncos end up in our NFL picks? Hate to say it, but replacing Peyton Manning was a big part of it. His performance this year was, well, sub-Tebow. Brock Osweiler came in last week and did a pretty good job against the Chicago Bears: 20-of-27 for 250 yards, a pair of TD passes, and +58 Total DYAR – good for ninth place at his position.

In seventh: Tom Brady, who put up +84 Total DYAR against the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots lost two more wideouts in that game: Danny Amendola (knee) is not making the trip to Denver, and Aaron Dobson (ankle) has been put on injured reserve. This would be where Keshawn Martin might step up for the Pats, but he's missed five games with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday.

The sharps are on the scene. There was a 55-percent lean toward the Broncos at +3 on our first consensus reports; now that the weekend has arrived, the tide has shifted toward New England at 56 percent, but it's still the Broncos pulling in over 83 percent of the action, for an average bet size of just under $1,000. Denver's available at +3 if you shop around, so if you're willing to pay the premium on vig, consider a small bet on the home dogs, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Take the Broncos +3 (–115) at Bovada

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