NFL Picks: Breaking Down Best ATS Bets For all Week 6 Matchups

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 7:51 PM GMT

Check out our game-by-game preview for all week 6 matchups, complete with NFL picks against the spread, before placing your bets at the bookies.

Week 5 Recap Of Our Choice NFL Picks ATS
After an abysmal week 4 we bounce back with a stellar 11-3 record on our NFL picks in week 5, which has us improving to a 44-32-1 mark through five weeks of predicting against the spread. (See Table 1). Those NFL picks were complimented nicely with a 9-5 record on our SU NFL picks, but our record against the total, admittedly, puts a blight on the week as a whole.

***NFL Week 6 Total Picks***
***NFL Week 6 ML Picks***
***NFL Week 6 Player Props***
***NFL Week 6 Team Props***

 

Table 1: Breaking Down Weekly Game-by-Game NFL Picks Records

 

NFL WEEK

ATS RECORD

SU RECORD

TOTAL RECORD

Week 1 – 16 Games

13-3-0

11-5-0

9-7-0

Week 2 – 16 Games

4-12-0

4-12-0

6-10-0

Week 3 – 16 Games

12-4-0

12-4-0

8-8-0

Week 4 – 15 Games

4-10-1

7-8-0

8-6-1

Week 5 – 14 Games

11-3-0

9-5-0

3-11-0

Total – 77 Games

44-32-1

43-34-0

34-42-1

Another week looms ahead for our weekly game-by-game predictions, so let’s get cracking. We have a 14-game slate before us and some stellar NFL picks to add to your NFL betting thrills.

 

Cardinals vs. Steelers
The Cardinals are back on the winning track, bouncing back from a shocking upset to the Rams with a walloping of the Lions, 47-17 to cover as the 2.5-point road chalk. In their second straight road game, they come up against a tough customer in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers had all to do to beat the Chargers in week 5 NFL betting; it took some side-line coaching and game-strategizing from the injured Ben Roethlisberger to secure the last-gasp victory.

Before MNF, this game looked to be an easy NFL pick leaning towards the Cardinals. They are fifth in total offense, tenth in passing offense and third in rushing offense, all while leading the charge in points scored at an average of 38-points. However, the Steelers showed they can win with Big Ben on the side lines on Monday and on the road no less. That’s nothing to sniff at. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t too shabby either, ranking in the top half of the league overall and allowing 19-points against (the seventh fewest in the league). Plus, there’s no understating home field advantage where the Steelers are 1-0-1 ATS this season with an 11-point winning margin and 6-4-1 ATS since 2014 with a 6.2-point winning margin. As home underdogs, they are 1-0-1 with a 7-point winning margin since 2014 – clearly, it’s not often they are disadvantaged at home when Big Ben is calling the shots.

So where does that leave us but with what appears to be a game that could be closely contested if both sides play up to their quality and depth. Where the Cardinals do edge the Steelers is at quarterback; that’s going to be key for the Cardinals winning and covering this game. Vick did lead the Steelers to the win in week 5, but nobody that watched the game can claim he played brilliantly. Only the last few minutes of the game did he truly shine. Not enough for us to tickle the Steelers at home though.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -3 (-115) at 5Dimes

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Bears vs. Lions
On paper, this game is arguably the least thrilling of the lot. Granted it’s an NFC North showdown, but between two of the most disappointing instalments in the field – the 2-3 SU Bears vs. the 0-5 SU Lions. Not exactly the popcorn match of the week. So we’re not going to waste too much thought on this game, save to say that we’re a bit surprised the Lions are favoured in this game. By a field-goal line no less. Have the odds makers watched the Lions this season? Granted the Bears aren’t exactly lighting it up this season but they have a couple of things going for them: a two-game winning streak and a brilliant coach who’s finally getting a handle on his team this season. That’s enough reason for us to chance the Bears on our NFL picks plus the points.

NFL Picks: Bears +3 at Pinnacle

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Bengals vs. Bills
The Bengals are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS with a 9.4-point winning margin while the Bills are 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS with a 3.8-point winning margin. On paper, the game looked to be a good one to spot on your NFL picks. And, initially, we were leaning towards the Bills with our NFL picks. We went so far as to predict they would win SU as the home underdogs.

Since then, however, there have been mixed reports about the status of Tyrod Taylor, from claims he was ruled out for Sunday’s game to contradicting claims made just today by Rex Ryan that he wasn’t ruling out his starter just yet. In the case of the former, we’re not so sure we’d trust our money in EJ Manuel’s dicey hands. It goes without saying that if the latter proves the case, we like the Bills to cover, at the very least.

There’s no way of knowing what to expect now when such conflicting reports are coming down the wire. Is Rex Ryan just playing mind games or is it really a game time decision whether Tyrod Taylor starts. Wise NFL bettors will probably give this game a skip on their NFL picks, but the purpose of this column is to serve up NFL picks for each-and-every game, no matter the conditions. So we’re bravely go where most NFL bettors won’t go. What’s more, we’re sticking with the Bills to cover as the 3-point home underdogs. Yup, we’re bonkers.

NFL Picks: Bills +3 (-115) at Bovada

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Broncos vs. Browns
Experts and pundits alike don’t seem to be entirely sold on the Denver Broncos and their 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark, which includes a 6.8-point winning record. This sentiment has gone so far as to inspire predictions of an upset by the Browns in week 6 NFL betting. So the Browns upset the Ravens last week. Can they really go back-to-back upsets?

The main reason why few are buying what the Broncos are selling this season is that defense rather than offense is topping league charts. Seems a bit churlish to slag the Broncos because Peyton Manning isn’t littering the stat sheets with ridiculous numbers. Lest they’ve all forgotten, he crushed records last season for all the good it did the Broncos in the postseason. Perhaps, he’s done breaking records or the organisation wants to save Manning for the latter half of the season when they need him to be at his best. Let’s not forget he’s working with a new offensive scheme that is bound to take some time to get used to, which might explain why he’s throwing an interception per game and not at his usual lofty standard.

Speculation aside, what we do know is that the Broncos have been focusing on defense a lot in the past few seasons, since their horrendous Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks. We should be commending them for finally getting the right formula on the field and not worrying so much about what Peyton Manning is doing or not doing. At the end of the day, they have a winning formula right now that has served up a perfect 5-0 SU start and a 4-1 ATS mark with a 6.8-point winning margin. On the road, they are 3-0 ATS with an 8.3-point winning margin.

NFL Picks: Broncos -4 (-111) at Bet365

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Texans vs. Jaguars
The Texans are a disappointing 1-4 SU and ATS with a 7.6-losing margin. They are also a debilitating 0-2 ATS on the road with a staggering 17-point losing margin. Obviously, by those stats the only conclusion is that the Texans are god-awful. However, we would maintain the main reason they are so bad is down to poor coaching decisions. Brian Hoyer was named the starter for week 1, but Bill O’Brien panicked too quickly. Giving him the hook so fast, the Cleveland cast off never really got a chance to find his feet. He was a lot more forgiving of Ryan Mallet and his erratic play through the first five weeks of the season even though they were losing. Such lack of confidence in the most important position on the team doesn’t bode well for team ethos.

In any event, Hoyer is back. Mallet is out; that is, for now until O’Brian has another change of heart. If the last two games in which Hoyer played only a handful of quarters are any indication, the Texans just might be able to get back on track at the expense of the Jaguars. The Jaguars are 1-4 SU and coming off a loss to the Bucs, marking the first home win for Tampa Bay since forever. While the Jaguars showed plenty of threat in that game they still weren’t able to snuff the Bucs and close out the game. It’s a tossup on our NFL picks, but we’re banking on Hoyer to prove his mettle as the Texans’ starter.

NFL Picks: Texans -1 (-120) at BetOnline

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Chiefs vs. Vikings
Hang-dog faces on the Chiefs bench in week 5’s loss to the underwhelming Bears says a lot about the mind-set of the team right now. They’ve hit a nadir this season that is compounded by the loss of Jamaal Charles for the season, prompting a rather bleak outlook for week 6’s clash with the Vikings. Four-points to Minnesota though does seem a touch generous even if they are at home. The strength of the Vikings is the running game spearheaded by Adrian Peterson, which ranks second in the league with an average of 136.5 yards per game. However, total offense is bottom of the league in 32nd place, thanks to a passing game that is also propping up the league with 165.3 yards per game. The Chiefs are a decent 13th against the rush allowing just 98.6 yards per game and 27th against the pass allowing 284.6 yards per game. If the Chiefs can contain the run game, they could pull off the cover at the very least in what should be a tight game. Vikings are coming off the bye, when teams can be a bit slow to get going after almost two weeks rest.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +4  at 5Dimes

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Dolphins vs. Titans
Are we to buy what Dan Campbell is selling? It’s all well and good to talk the talk, but can the Dolphins walk the walk. Games are played on the field and not in press conferences with the media, not in the boardroom and certainly not on the practice field. It remains to be seen what sort of Dolphins come out in this game. Until we get a sense of what Dan Campbell’s Dolphins look like, we’re going with the hosts Titans in this game to cover as the home faves.

NFL Picks: Titans -2.5 

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Redskins vs. Jets
The Vikings took the Falcons to overtime last week, only for Kirk Cousins to throw a touchdown pass to the Falcons (pick-6). Oops. Quite the blunder to make after rallying to level the score. Do the Redskins bounce back or regress in week 6 NFL betting. There’s something to be said for saving face and seeking vindication the week after such a bitter loss. It won’t be easy against a stout Jets team that is surprising some NFL bettors by going 3-1 SU and ATS with a 10-point winning margin in their first four games.

As it is, the Jets are favoured anywhere from 5.5-pointsto 7-points at home at the expense of the Redskins, who are 3-2 ATS this season and boast a 1.4-point losing margin. A score definitely seems to be way too many points to lay with a team that is coming off a bye week and a trip to London to cover. The Jets aren’t the Patriots after all.

NFL Picks: Redskins +7 (-135) at 5Dimes

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Panthers vs. Seahawks
Of all the games in week 6, this practically leaps off the page as the game to spot. It may well be the popcorn match of the week with the undefeated Panthers looking for revenge at CenturyLink after losing in the NFC divisional game last season to the Seahawks. It helps their chances that the Seahawks are quite up to their lofty standards behind a 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark, which is highlighted by a 2.6-winning margin.

It’s not often that one has a team with a losing record on the season favoured by a high of 7.5-points over an undefeated team. That’s the weight of the Seahawks name and their credentials on the NFL betting floor. Not to mention a solid head-to-head. The Panthers have lost five straight to the Seahawks, including twice last season, but they covered the first game as the 6-point home underdogs and pushed as the 14-point road.

It’s just a hunch, maybe a long shot in the eyes of NFL betting fans, but we’re really liking the Panthers as the 7-point pups in this game to cover. It just seems the Panthers are being disingenuously disadvantaged, with no consideration of their form compared to the Seahawks’ fallibility this season. Take the Panthers plus the points on your NFL picks. In fact, we’re going all out with the Panthers in our game-by-game picks predicting the SU upset as well. Fortune favours the brave, so they say.

NFL Picks: Panthers +7.5 (-140) at 5Dimes

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Ravens vs. Niners
The Super Bowl 47 rematch could potentially prove the most surprising in week 6 NFL betting. As it is, neither team has given us much to be excited about behind their 1-4 SU records. That said something is going to give when these two teams meet at Levi Stadium. Baltimore Ravens enter as the road faves anywhere from 1-to2.5-points depending on your sportsbook of choice. Clearly, the Niners have lost the faith of bettors –be they at home or on the road. We would, however, point out that holding the Packers to just 17 points two weeks ago and finally lighting up on the scoreboard in a 30-27 loss to the Giants on the road (as the 6-point underdogs) are positive signs. More positive than a loss to the Browns in overtime after leading the game for the better part of the second half. It’s a tossup for us on our NFL picks, but when there is a host plus points we generally lean in that direction.

NFL Picks: Niners +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Chargers vs. Packers
Undoubtedly, the Green Bay Packers are the choice NFL pick to win SU in this game. Few would consider betting against them in that market. Here we look at whether laying the 10–points (or higher depending on your preferred online bookie) is warranted. The Chargers are a solid team altogether, even though they are coming off a bitter loss to the Big-Ben-less Steelers at home.

In fact, that loss has set them back to a 2-4 SU record, which means they’ll be desperate in week 6 NFL betting to avoid another setback. Beating the Packers is a tall order and an unfortunate twist in their schedule when they are down in the doldrums. Nor is desperation a recipe for success against the Packers. On the contrary, it could lead to the Chargers trying to do too much and that could prove costly if they don’t take care of the football. Overall, it’s a lot of points to lay with a team, but the Packers are one team that can be trusted more often than not to hold up against the spread. They are 3-0 ATS with an 11.3-point winning margin at home as the chalk and 9-2-1 ATS since 2014 with a 16.2-point winning margin. Find the lowest point spread possible and lay the points with the Packers.

NFL Picks: Packers -9.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Patriots vs. Colts
The AFC Championship game showdown reprisal [Insert dramatic shiver]. How will it go this time? Will the Colts leave the field deflated again or will the Patriots suffer a shock upset. Clouding this game is the continuing uncertain status of Andrew Luck, whether he’ll be ready to play against the Patriots or not this Sunday. The starter has missed two games and could potentially miss this highly-anticipated showdown, which would be a shame for NFL betting fans. That said, the Colts and Pagano are 0-5 SU against the tandem of Belichick and Brady. The way the Patriots have steamrolled through their first four games of the season.  NFL betting lines opened with the Patriots favoured by a score. That has since moved up to 7.5 or 8-points depending on where you shop NFL odds. Given the Patriots offense is outscoring opponents by an average of 18.25 points, we’re comfortable laying the points with the Patriots on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Patriots -7.5 (-105) at Bet365

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Giants vs. Eagles
The NFC East showdown between the Giants and Eagles wraps up week 6 NFL betting and with each offense finding its stride last weekend this promises to be a highly entertaining MNF clash. The Eagles are the home chalk at a relatively reasonable 4-points, but they are only 2-3 SU this season and 2-3 ATS with a 2.8-point winning margin. The Giants, similarly, are reasonably disadvantaged on the road but they are 3-2 SU and boast a 3-2 ATS mark with a 4.6-point winning margin. It’s a tossup really on our NFL picks. Giants are riding a three-game winning streak, while the Eagles haven’t shown enough consistency to make them a choice NFL pick. We backed the Eagles on our SU picks to pull off the home win so we’re inclined to hedge our bets here with the Giants to cover as the 4-point road pups.

NFL Picks: Giants +4  at BetOnline

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