NFL Picks: Break the Bookies Wallets With our Week 11 Value Plays

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 8:58 PM GMT

This week had absolutely no problem picking out 3 value plays from the array of betting odds choices. I am so very confident in NFL picks and here is what I am going to do.

I Guarantee if these NFL picks do not make you money, I will supply you with next's week's ABSOULTELY FREE! Hold on one second....Sportsbookreview.com only does free NFL picks, so I would be giving away something that is free and will still be free next week. Oh! Never mind. Here are my Free Plays for this weekend. (My apologies, went into pure football handicapper mode.)

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of WagerWeb.

 

Carolina Remains Undervalued
Last week on SBR video presentation, host Peter Loshak disagreed with my Carolina Panthers pick and I thoroughly understood what Peter meant and many wise guys also thought Carolina was a in play against spot. I mentioned to Peter that I thought this would be the week to bet against Cam Newton and the gang because I fully expected them to be -10 point favorites at home against Washington if they won and covered versus Tennessee. To my amazement, the Panthers were listed as only a touchdown home favorite against Washington. From value perspective, that is a lot of points and while the Redskins deserve kudos for crushing New Orleans, Kurt Cousins and Washington have yet to prove they are competent on to road at 0-4 and 1-3 ATS. With Carolina 14-1 and 10-5 ATS in all game since Week 14 of last season, it's the Cats by at least 10.

NFL Pick: Carolina -7 (-115) at Bookmaker

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Minnesota in Changing of the Guard
In watching Minnesota and Green Bay play last week, I was struck by the notion this could be changing of the guard in the NFC North. In spite of how bad the Packers played in loss to Detroit, they still has numerous chances to win the game and failed in every one. The Vikings had 13-0 lead at Oakland, lost it, but salted the game away with 10-0 fourth quarter. One fact that should not be overlooked about this season to date is six of the Top 8 rushing teams have winning ATS record, compared to just half of the Top 8 passing clubs. Minnesota is first in rushing, second in yards per points allowed and 7-1 ATS when the NFL odds are -3 to +3 like this confrontation. More confident and complete Vikes team covers the number.

NFL Pick: Vikings PK (-110) at Bovada

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Kansas City Keeps Winning
I had no faith in Kansas City last week to defeat Denver, but they took the action right to the Broncos. Having won and covered three in a row, often in the NFL or anywhere for that matter, once you start to believe, you work harder and put forth more effort and good things start going your way. This is what I see for the Chiefs. San Diego might be somewhat refreshed off bye week, but that does not heal all their injuries and some veteran Chargers players have come out questioning the toughness of some of the younger players willingness to play with pain. San Diego has shown no proclivity to win close games, thus, with K.C. 22-4 ATS in convoluted system of mine, they win by 8.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -2.5 (-130) at 5Dimes

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