NFL Picks Bills vs Jets: Total Focus & Prediction for Thursday Night

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 12, 2015 1:40 PM GMT

The Over is 7-3 in the L10 games in the Bills vs. Jets series, lets examine the  relevant Trends, Injuries & where these teams are at this point in the season, then come up with a logical Totals pick.

What: NFL Week 10—Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
When: Thursday, November 12, 2015
Weather: Clouds give way to clear, 47°, Light, variable Winds WSW 10-15 mph, 69% Humidity
Current Point Spread: Jets -2½ to -3
Current High Total in Marketplace: 43½ (Wynn Las Vegas, CarbonSports.ag)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 42½ Online, 43 in Las Vegas
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 42 (Pinnacle)
Alternate Total: Under 40 +137, Over 40 -187 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 40½ +125, Over 40½ -175 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 41 +110, Over 41 -150 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 41½ +105, Over 41½ -142 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Buffalo Bills (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Thursday night to face the New York Jets (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) in this Week 10 AFC East showdown which is extremely important to both teams and could be a crushing Loss for the ultimate losers. Both teams have some Injury issues heading in here with Jets starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick reportedly planning on having surgery on his injured Left Thumb on Friday and C Nick Mangold (Neck, Questionable) both Injured and Bills starter Tyrod Taylor dealing with some physical issues of his own and RB LeSean McCoy (Shoulder) leaving Sunday’s Win over the Jaguars. But expect Fitzpatrick (Thumb) and McCoy (Probable) both to go for Head Coach Rex Ryan in such an important game—T Cyrus Kouandjio (Knee) is listed as Questionable—as well as electric WR Sammy Watkins (Ankle, Questionable) who had an incredible game in Week 9 in Buffalo’s Win over the Miami Dolphins, being targeted 8 times by emerging Bills QB Tyrod Taylor, making 8 Receptions for 168 yards and a TD. In their last game, the Jets defeated the Jaguars, 28-23 here at Home in East Rutherford as Fitzpatrick (21/34, 272 yards), WR Brandon marshall (4 Receptions, 44 yards, TD) and WR Eric Decker (6 Receptions, 79 yards, TD) had good games although the Jets Rushing game was virtually nonexistent (29 yards). The focus of this particular assignment—(handicapping) the Total, currently sits in relatively wide 1½-point range from 42 (Pinnacle) to 43½ (Wynn Las Vegas) range, but with Overs going 8-5 in Week 9 and with Fitzpatrick expected to start and Taylor doing so well and McCoy and Watkins back, points should be scored and this could be 17-10 either way at Halftime with the primetime spotlight fueling players and crucial point in the Regular Season give it their best. Here are the L10 posted Totals, Final Scores and O/U results overall from this Bills-Jets series.

 

Final Scores, Posted Totals, Results L10 Meetings Buffalo Bills-New York Jets Series
2014—Bills 38 Jets 3 Total—42½ Result—Under (@ Ford Field, Detroit)
2014—Bills 42 @ Jets 23 Total—40 Result—Over
2013—@ Bills 37 Jets 14 Total—39 Result—Over
2013—@ Jets 20 Bills 27 Total—40½ Result—Over
2012—@ Bills 28 Jets 9 Total—40½ Result—Under
2012—@ Jets 48 Bills 28 Total—39½ Result—Over
2011—@ Jets 28 Bills 24 Total—43 Result—Over
2011—Jets 27 @ Bills 11 Total—45 Result—Under
2010—@ Jets 38 Bills 7 Total—38 Result—Over
2010—Jets 38 @ Bills 14 Total—36½ Result—Over

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see, these two teams have skewed to the Over in the L10 meetings in the series overall, with a 7-3 ATS mark to the Over, while the L5 meetings here at MetLife Stadium have all gone Over (65, 47, 76, 52, 45 points, average 57.0 ppg)—a significant piece of handicapping information. The Weather will be as chilly as it has been this year, but these two Empire State teams are definitely used to the cold and forecasted Low temperatures on Thursday night of 47° will be not as big of a factor as the QBs who actually start for both sides. When these two teams met last year, the Bills swept both SU and ATS, winning 43-23 at MetLife as 3-point underdogs and 38-3 as 3-point favorites at Ford Field in Detroit in a game which had to be moved and re-schedule due to massive amounts of Snowfall in the Buffalo area. The Bills are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series. On Thursdays, Buffalo (0-3 ATS the L3 games it has played on Thursdays) is 2-3 both SU and ATS as Road underdogs while the Jets (7-3-1 ATS L11 overall) are 3-5 SU and 5-2 ATS as Road favorites. The Westgate Las Vegas renowned NFL Games of the Year released late each Spring had the Bills open up as 1-point favorites in this game.

As far as the Total and some Trends, the under is 7-3 ATS in the L10 Bills November games and the Under is also 9-3 ATS the L12 Bills games in Week 10 but the truly significant stat—Month and Week Trends are subject to too much Randomness—is the Trend where Bills games are 15-5 ATS in the L20 games played on FieldTurf (MetLife Stadium). Why? The playing surface is a consistent and judges a healthy recent sample (20) size of Bills games with semi-current Rosters and isn’t as random as a Thursday or Month trend which goes back to when Fred Flintstone was still courting Wilma at Bedrock High. Toss in the 5 straight games which have gone Over here at MetLife and that 57.0 ppg average, the NFL Week 9 8-5 Over results and the relatively low posted Total of 42 (Pinnacle) and it seems the Over is the only look in such an important game for both teams, although the amount of the bet surely must be lowered (by at least half) if the Jets start and intend on playing Geno Smith the entire 60 minutes, although the former Virginia Tech QB may be good for a Pick-6 for the Bills, a good thing for the Over. But luckily for potential Over backers, it seems that Fitzpatrick will be starting in what will be one of the biggest games in the AFC East this season and one which could have huge AFC Wild Card implications.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Bills 24 Jets 20

NFL WEEK 10 TOTALS PICK: Over 42 (Pinnacle)

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