NFL Picks: Bills vs. Jets Opening Odds & Thursday Night ATS Advice

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 5:50 PM GMT

The Buffalo Bills had both Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins in action last week, and they cruised to the pay window. Can they beat the football odds against the N.Y. Jets?

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 8: 29-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 20-27 Total
 

Like the old saying goes, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that everyone isn't out to get you. Did Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan pull the old “Spirit of '76” move against the Miami Dolphins last week? It looked like WR Sammy Watkins might miss that game after showing up at Friday's practice with his left ankle taped up like Tutankhamun. Instead, Watkins made Dolphins CB Brent Grimes look silly, catching 8-of-8 targets for 186 yards and a touchdown. Final score: Buffalo (–4 at home) 33, Miami 17. Well played, Rexy.

What other tricks, real or imagined, might Ryan be planning for his former employers? The Bills will travel to the New Meadowlands for this week's very special episode of Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, NFLN), where they'll meet the New York Jets in what is already a critical AFC East matchup. At press time, New York is laying the requisite three points on our Week 10 NFL odds board, with 60 percent of early bettors preferring the Bills.

 

Buffalo Jump
It's very early in the week, but our first expanded consensus reports are already out, and maybe Buffalo is just masquerading as the sharp NFL pick in this matchup. The Bills (4-4 SU and ATS) are drawing 56 percent of the monies wagered thus far, which actually gives the Jets the larger average bet size at $74 to Buffalo's $62. See, you can't trust Ryan and the Bills. They're always dealing from the bottom of the deck.

As for our heroes, the Jets (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) kept their march toward Super Bowl 50 alive with a 28-23 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the Jags got paid as 7.5-point road faves on the closing line. That leaves New York at 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games. Well, we did say Blake Bortles was getting better. But this result hinged on the Jets only gaining 29 yards on the ground in 28 carries. Seriously? They could have run a quarterback sneak on every play and done better.
 

Folksonomy
Anyway, in theory, we might be tempted to go with the Bills this week, now that Taylor and Watkins are back in the lineup. But RB LeSean McCoy is the latest casualty after hurting his right shoulder in the Miami game. Will he play on Sunday? Don't get us started again. Ryan won't even tell us if McCoy's had an MRI.

There might be an even more important injury on the Jets sideline. PK Nick Folk hurt himself warming up for the Jaguars game, which forced punter Ryan Quigley to kick the extra points – no field goals were attempted, partly by design. With a short week to prepare for the Bills, New York could be stuck doing the same thing on Thursday. Let's see if Folk shows up at practice with his right leg in a cast.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Bills +3 at The Greek