Line shopping can often pay dividends, and this matchup could prove that. Some online sportsbooks have the Dolphins favored by 7.5, but others have NFL odds as high as 9.5, so utilizing multiple sites would certainly play into your favor here.
The total has been more stable, with offerings of either 43 or 43.5. The OVER has been a money-maker for both teams so far, going 4-2 in Buffalo's games and 4-1 in Miami's five matchups.
The Bills staged quite an improbable comeback in Week 6, but ultimately fell in overtime to the visiting Bengals.
Buffalo was down 24-10 after three quarters, but Thad Lewis led two touchdown drives in the fourth, including the game-tying score with just over a minute remaining. However, the Bills couldn't get anything going in the extra period and that ended up costing them.
All in all, it was an encouraging season debut for Lewis, the practice player turned starter who has taken over the job with E.J. Manuel out. Lewis was 19-of-31 for 216 yards and two touchdowns and added a rushing score in the loss.
C.J. Spiller looked more explosive, running for 48 yards on eight carries, but Fred Jackson was held to 35 yards on 10 rushes. T.J. Graham led the Bills in receiving with 74 yards on four catches. Number one receiver Stevie Johnson is expected to return this Sunday, which is definitely a boost for Lewis and the offense.
Heading into Week 7, the Bills are ranked #15 in total offense and #27 in total defense. They've been one of the NFL's best rushing teams, averaging 148.8 YPG (#3), but defensively they rank in the bottom half in both stopping the pass and run.
Having had two weeks to game-plan, expectations are high for the Dolphins coming out of their BYE.
They went into their week off fresh off a tough-to-take 26-23 home loss to Baltimore. It was a game that really could have went either way, but Justin Tucker's late field goal was the difference in the end.
The Dolphins had to be encouraged by the play of Ryan Tannehill, who was 21-of-40 for 307 yards and a touchdown. Mike Wallace led all Miami receivers with seven receptions for 105 yards, while Brandon Gibson, Brian Hartline, and Charles Clay all had at least 50 yards too.
However, the running game continued to have problems, with Lamar Miller rushing only seven times for 15 yards. For the season, Miami ranks #28 in rushing with a very poor 69.6 yards per game.
The overall numbers don't bode well for the home team. They rank #27 in total offense and #25 in total defense coming into this date with Buffalo.
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Week 7 Pick
Sure, the Bills have lost two in a row and will be facing a Dolphins team that's coming off their BYE week.
The problem here is we don't think Miami's one-dimensional offense is good enough to turn this thing into a blowout. With that in mind, it's hard not to grab all of these points you get with Buffalo, especially since Lewis proved he can run the offense reasonably well against a formidable opponent like Cincinnati.
The Bills have been competitive in every game this season. They were tied with Cleveland 24-24 going into the fourth before losing 37-24 in Week 5 and other than that every loss has been by seven points or less. When it comes to our NFL picks, we believe they'll keep this one close enough for an ATS cover.
Pick: Buffalo Bills +9.5