NFL Picks: Bills vs. Colts in Preseason Week 1

Tuesday, July 30, 2013 7:22 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 30, 2013 7:22 PM UTC

Buffalo has a ton of talent on all sides, and if their quarterback situation is steady, they could be a very good value here in Week 1 of the preseason, and beyond.

The Bills are this season’s version of the 2012 Colts, expect for the fact that we don’t yet know if they will be that good. NFL odds for this matchup favor the Colts here at -3, with a total of 37 points. Are the Colts’ overvalued here as sports picks, or are they going to do what they did in Week 1 of the 2012 preseason?

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Year dos

The Colts and Andrew Luck might not be an 11-win team this season SU and ATS, but they will still be a very good team in the AFC South. Unlike this time last year, Luck and the Colts don’t need to play a full half with their starters in the game, blowing out their opponent after a 2-win season. This season they are coming off a playoff berth, and even though I expect Luck and the starters to get at least one series in this game, I doubt they get much more than that.

The Colts are going to be much more focused on running the ball in this game, as well as looking at their defense. The offense is the least of their concerns right now. That being said, I don’t see the Colts scoring a whole bunch in this game. Even if Luck comes out and throws a touchdown pass like he did in their first possession of last year’s preseason Week 1, I doubt he stays in long enough to do anything else.

For more NFL offseason coverage, take a look at our Colts Season Win Total Odds preview!

Bills rebuild

If this game goes like I think it’s going to, then Kevin Kolb will start, be really bad, and then EJ Manuel will come in and dominate the 2nd and 3rd strong guys from the Colts. Manuel has been looking better and better, and looking more likely that he will start over Kolb. However, I still think Kolb is going to start this preseason game, because you don’t want to destroy the kid’s confidence in an exhibition game.

Kolb will likely start, but Manuel should get an extended run in this game, and I expect him to do well against a defense that is better, but was still awful last season. If this game turns into a battle between fringe roster guys, give the Bills with a new head coach any day taking points. They will all want to show they are capable of winning, even if the games don’t count.

Our NFL offseason and preseason coverage continues with our Bills Season Win Total Odds report!

The Sharp Pick

Doug Marrone would love to get his first win as a head coach in this game, and I see the Bills actually going for the win rather than playing for evaluation. Look what the Colts did last season after their 2-14 SU season. They came in and dropped 30+ points. I see Kolb and Manuel getting extended runs in this game for better or for worse, and I think the Bill will be really focused on not only defense, but also scoring as much as they can. Manuel could see 2 quarters of action, and if that happens, I love the Bills taking points for my NFL picks.


NFL Pick: Bet the Bills laying the points at +3 (or better, if you can)

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