NFL Picks: Bills & Redskins Will Go 'Under' 44 In Running Oriented Game

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, December 19, 2015 10:08 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015 10:08 PM GMT

Believe it nor not, but after their win against the Bears last week, the Redskins are currently in the fourth seed in the NFC, and looking to keep it that way this week at home against Buffalo. Can Buffalo keep their slim playoff hopes alive this week, or will Washington shut down the road Bills?

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NFL Pick: Under 44

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Playoff Hopes and Dreams
While the Redskins have a much clearer path to the playoffs thanks to their garbage division, the Bills’ chances are closing after their loss last week to the Eagles. They are now two full games back of the Steelers, Jets and Chiefs, who are all 8-5. They are also behind the Raiders because of Oakland’s better conference record, so a loss here would surely end the Bills' playoff hopes. While the Skins are holding on for dear life as well, that might mean this could be a pretty competitive game, and it could also mean some value in the NFL odds.

With both teams fighting for their playoff lives, this is a must-win game for both teams, and it could mean the defenses come to play. While neither defense has been exceptionally good overall this season, at times they have both looked pretty good. If the Skins’ defense can show up in this one at home, the total might be the best play between these two desperate teams.

Washington’s defense has actually looked really good since getting beaten down by the Panthers 44-16, and in their last three games they are giving up 18 points per game, and they have averaged allowing less than 350 yards of total offense in those three games to their opponents. Washington’s defense was actually pretty good to start the season, and after a lull in the middle, they are back and motivated down the stretch.

Buffalo on the other hand hasn’t been as consistent, and in their last three games they have given up nearly 25 points per game, and around 400 yards of total offense to their opponents. While the Skins’ offense isn’t great, they are surely as good as the last three teams that Buffalo has faced, the Chiefs, Texans and Eagles. With a large total of 44, and with the playoffs on the line, the under looks like the best play for our NFL picks on this game.

 

The Sharp Pick
The under has now cashed in four of the last six road games for the Bills this season, and the under is 5-2 in the Skins’ last seven home games. The under has also cashed in the last three times these two teams have met one another dating back to the 2003 season, and while that means very little in regards to handicapping this game in 2015, it is reassuring that this matchup could be a lower scoring one.

At home this season Washington has the fifth best passing defense in the NFL, giving up only 223 passing yards per game, and with Tyrod Taylor under center for Buffalo, this could mean more running for the Bills and LeSean McCoy. The Skins are definitely going to run the ball more as well, as the Bills have actually been pretty good at defending the pass on the road this season as well.

With both teams averaging over 130 rushing yards per game at home and on the road respectfully, I could see a slower, running oriented game in this one which will almost surely lead to the under being the play.

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