Week 11 Consensus: Saints, Steelers Generate Big Bets

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 18, 2018 12:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 18, 2018 12:00 PM UTC

They say big money is sharp money. If that’s the case, the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers should both go in your Week 11 NFL picks – or should they?

Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 10: 5-10 ATS, 2-4 Totals

Houston (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Washington (6-3 SU and ATS)Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET; Landover (CBS)Free NFL Pick: WashingtonBest Line Offered: Bovada

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You have to hand it to the nouveau riche. They’ve got a lot of money to throw around, and they’ll put some big bets out there. But these aren’t the sharp bets we’re looking for when we surf the expanded consensus reports. This week, the largest average bets at press time are on the New Orleans Saints ($195.33) and the Pittsburgh Steelers ($134), but we’re not convinced this is sharp money here at the ranch. No offense.

We’re talking about two traditionally public teams who happen to be favorites on the Week 11 NFL odds board. The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) are laying eight points at home to the Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS), and the Steelers (6-2-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are 5.5-point road faves against the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6 SU, 3-5-1 ATS). This is obviously a good matchup for both favorites – just not from a betting standpoint.

Medium Rollers, Baby

Unfortunately, the old-school “fade the favorite” play doesn’t look so good here, either. FiveThirtyEight project New Orleans at –7.5 and Pittsburgh at –5 using their Elo-based special sauce. That doesn’t leave enough profit margin to make betting either side worth your while.

Too bad. The consensus numbers for Sunday’s Eagles-Saints game (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) look especially promising; New Orleans is bringing in 46.33 percent of bettors at press time, but 79.09 percent of the amount wagered. This is the kind of betting pattern that usually suggests the sharp money is on the Saints. Maybe it is. Or maybe it’s those other well-heeled bettors who don’t think too much about these things. Not that $195.33 is high stakes, mind you.

Make D.C. Care Again

Whatever the hell’s going on, we’re looking elsewhere for our Week 11 NFL picks. And there’s an interesting situation for Sunday’s Houston-Washington game: The Texans are 3-point favorites, but FiveThirtyEight project the home side at –3.5. Interesting. The consensus numbers have Houston hauling in 58.72 percent of bettors and 61.54 percent of the monies wagered. What’s going on here?

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Josh Norman calls out @Redskins's home crowd after road win: \"We can play all the games on the road if you ask me.\" 😳 #HTTR
➡️ https://t.co/X0cIKoN6NO pic.twitter.com/oozCt5XVdG

— Yahoo Sports NFL (@YahooSportsNFL) 12 de novembro de 2018
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Maybe it has something to do with the really, really bad crowds in Landover – as recently called out by CB Josh Norman. Except Washington is 3-2 SU and ATS at home this year. Maybe it’s because LT Trent Williams (thumb) was ruled out of Sunday’s game earlier this week. Except Williams is now listed as questionable after putting in some limited work Friday. There are so many unknowns in this world. Let’s roll with the analytics for a small wager, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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