NFL Picks: Big Betting Value Found on Giants (+5) Monday Night

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, October 19, 2015 1:54 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 19, 2015 1:54 PM GMT

We are heading into perhaps our most exciting MNF matchup to date when the Giants head south to take on the Eagles for NFC North superiority.  New York provides deep value as a +5 road dog.

NY Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5-) 8:30 ET ESPN
The division rival NY Giants travel to the Philadelphia Eagles to play back-to-back prime time games for this Monday, October 19th edition of MNF football.  As usual, the game kicks at 8:30 ET as televised by ESPN.  

***Monday Night Football Preview***
***Monday Night Football Total Pick***
***Monday Night Football Team Totals***
***Monday Night Football Player Props***

Last year, these two division rivals played a pair of games in which the Eagles emerged with victory on each occasion.   It was (27-0) Philly on this field last year.  Then it was (34-26) in favor of the Eagles once again, when they traveled north to close out the regular season.  That second game victory cemented a 6-10 SU losing season for the NY Giants and allowed the Eagles to finish 10-6 SU but without a playoff berth.  The 2 Eagles’ victories were also a microcosm of the fact that Philly has dominated this series of late on a run of 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS. 

Last week, the Eagles emerged from an offensive funk that had plagued them all season long.  They entered the Saints’ game, averaging just 20/294 on offense, running for just 70/3.1 when they beat the Saints (39-17) on this field.  They did so with the benefit of a (+2) net TO margin, a 186-96 overland edge and a 519-388 total yardage edge.  Could that be the buy sign for which Eagle fans have waited after improving their mark for the season to 2-3 SU ATS?  The win against New Orleans looked all the better, when 4 days later the Saints bounced back to whip the formerly undefeated Falcons (31-21) on Thursday Night Football.  This bureau, however, is not sold on the fact that when HC Kelly replaced his offensive triplets and brought in QB Bradford at the controls, that it was necessarily an upgrade.  The Eagles will have to do more than produce a resounding victory against New Orleans, until I’m ready to jump on their bandwagon in this role of home chalk.

While the Eagles were flashing a potential buy sign, the Giants continued their resurgence with a (30-27) come from behind win last Sunday Night against San Fran.  That followed victories over improved teams, Washington and Buffalo, for a 3-0 SU streak.  That is positive momentum, considering the 0-2 SU start which saw them gift a pair of games to the Cowboys, a 27-26 loss, and to the Falcons a 24-20 defeat.  In short, the Giants have either won or have been very competitive against a representative schedule this 2015 season.  They certainly needed it after last year’s 6-10 SU debacle put veteran HC Coughlin clearly on the hot seat.  At least part of the Giants’ success can be accredited to a greatly improved rush defense, allowing just 81/3.5.  Must also give credit to QB Manning, who is leading a passing game with 67% completions and 283 YPG.  In that regard, it would be a major plus for the Giants if top flight receiver, Beckham (hamstring) could make post tonight. 

The Giants have the advantage of divisional double revenge and have yet to be beaten by more than this number this season.  This works hand in glove with the respective records of these two, finding the underdog to recently be 9-2 ATS in NY Giants’ games and 9-1 ATS in Eagles’ games.  In addition, must respect the fact that the Eagles are recently only 6-15 ATS as divisional home chalk.  In a highly competitive divisional matchup, must favor the underdog Giants with the better record and the points.  As such, we get the NFL odds in our favor on my NFL MNF Pick of the week.  

NFL Pick: New York Giants +5 (-115) at The Greek

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