NFL Picks: Betting Value Found on Matthew Stafford at +1000 to Lead the League in Passing Yards

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, August 5, 2015 9:04 PM GMT

Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2015 9:04 PM GMT

One of our professional NFL consultants examines the chances for Matthew Stafford, pertaining to leading all quarterbacks in passing yards during this upcoming 2015 season.

Can Matthew Stafford Top the Passing Yards Chart in 2015?
I’m going to examine the 2015 NFL passing yard props, and specifically focus on the chances for Matthew Stafford of Detroit. I’ve listed the top nine quarterbacks below in terms of NFL odds. It must be noted, Tom Brady hasn’t been included on this list due to having a pending four-game suspension, and that’s slated to be served at the onset of the upcoming season.

 

Top Nine NFL Passing Yards Props

Player

Team

Odds

2014 Passing Yards

Andrew Luck

Indianapolis

+375

4,761

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay

+500

4,381

Drew Brees

New Orleans

+750

4,952

Peyton Manning

Denver

+750

4,727

Matt Ryan

Atlanta

+800

4,694

Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh

+1000

4,952

Matthew Stafford

Detroit

+1000

4,257

Eli Manning

NY Giants

+2500

4,410

Philip Rivers

San Diego

+2500

4,286

 

Why Stafford can be the NFL Passing Yards Leader
Durability: 
In order for a NFL quarterback to lead the league in passing, staying healthy for an entire 16-game regular season is paramount. Predicting an injury or the likelihood of one happening, short of performing an Evel Knieval daredevil stunt is virtually next to impossible. However, a proven track record of durability certainly can provide some valuable insight pertaining to probability. Matthew Stafford has started in all sixteen regular games for Detroit during each of the previous four seasons. Considering the absence of any sort of running game, and being in a pass happy offense that leaves him vulnerable to some vicious hits, that’s certainly a feat that can’t be ignored.

Recent History: Matthew Stafford has passed for better than 4200 yards in each of the previous four years. His low during that time frame was 4257 yards a season ago. Putting that number into perspective, that was still 9th best in the entire NFL.

Wide Receivers: The Lions possess arguably two of the ten best wide receivers in football. Golden Tate is coming off a career year, and ironically it was his first catching passes from Drew Stafford. Tate had 99 receptions for 1331 yards while playing in all sixteen games during the 2014 campaign. The other receiver is no stranger to NFL fans. Calvin Johnson has clearly established himself as one of the best at his craft during the first eight years of his NFL career. Unfortunately for the former Michigan State star, he endured an injury-plagued 2014 season that limited him to just thirteen starts. Despite not participating at full throttle, and missing some time, Johnson still had 71 receptions for 1077 yards. Both Johnson and Tate are legitimate home run threats every time they touch the ball.

 

The Obstacles
The Lions offensive line will be one of if not the biggest question mark heading into training camp. Considering that Matthew Stafford was sacked 45 times a season ago, and that was fourth most in the NFL, it certainly lends itself to a genuine area of concern. Stafford also wasn’t the beneficiary of any type of consistent running game. Detroit ranked 28th in rushing yards in 2014, averaging a mere 88.9 yards per game. Lack of a running game equals unfavorable down and distance situations, not to mention offensive predictability, and leaving its quarterback prone to being sacked.

 

Final Take
Matthew Stafford has passed for a cumulative 18,912 yards over the last four years, and any way you cut it, that’s extremely impressive. A lot of things must fall right in order to top the NFL passing yards board for an entire season. Some of which includes, not only the health of the quarterback, but also its offensive skilled players as well. If Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate can stay healthy for an entire year, and assuming Stafford will be able do so for the fifth consecutive season, his chances will be as good as any quarterback. The Detroit Lions also will be in dire need of improved offensive line play from what we witnessed in 2014. At odds of +1000, I’m going to be making a small wager on Matthew Stafford for one of my NFL picks.

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