NFL Picks: Betting Value Found on Jaguars to Cover ATS vs. Patriots

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 25, 2015 7:20 PM GMT

Our NFL Big Dog of the Week will be an NFL pick on a team that is an underdog of 6 or more points. This selection will be a blend of statistical, situational, and technical analysis.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (-13) - 1:00 ET
The Jaguars travel to New England to meet the Patriots for this 1:00 PM Eastern kick. Wasn’t I just saying to myself that it’s impossible to back the Jags, who are averaging 16 PPG which is right on their four year average? And wasn’t I just saying to myself that no one in their right mind would fade New England and Brady, who are averaging 34 PPG, and seem to be on a mission after being exonerated from Deflate Gate? Yet here we are fading the Patriots at home, and using, of all people, the Jacksonville Jaguars as my NFL pick as NFL Big Dog of the Week.

Yes, this is the same Jacksonville team who is on negative runs of 23-48 ATS in non-divisional games, and 11-21 ATS as underdog. Can we barely find a shred of evidence to offer support to the Jags? Look no further than last week, when the offense seemed to come to life, outrushing Miami 33 times to 16 for a 123-42 overland edge. A very conservative passing attack piled up 273 yards on only 18 attempts. That’s a whopping 396 YPG, a 100 more than the Jags have averaged the past three years combined. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Is there an old proverb, what goes down must come up? That will need to be the case if the Jags are going to hope to have any reason for success against New England.

In the first two contests, New England Patriots QB Tom Brady has led a passing attack that has totaled 754 passing yards. But there is cause for concern in the fact that they have been dominated overland. In those two games, New England has been outrushed 147/5.7 to 68/3.5. Defensively, they are allowing 27 PPG, 407 YPG, and 6.8 YP play, with only the 49ers having a worse number in that category. Meanwhile, the Jags have outrushed the opposition 110/4.1 to 74/2.9.

With New England just 1-8 ATS of late laying double digits, and clearly having the inferior defense, there is solid reason to believe the Jags come inside this number if they can establish the running game, much like the Bills did last week when they ran for 160 RYPG. Hidden fact in this game is the turnover numbers; the Jags and the -2 net TO ratio to New England’s +2 net TO ratio. Anytime we have a team whose negative turnover ratio is greater than or equal to the number of games they played, and is playing a team whose positive turnover margin is greater than or equal to the number of games they played, we know we have a good chance for a winner. No question New England could win this in a blowout, but it’s more likely that the Jags come in under this number.  It is clear that we have the NFL odds in our favor using Jacksonville as The NFL Big Dog of the Week.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +14.5 at 5Dimes

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