NFL Picks: Betting Value Found on Falcons +3 vs. Jaguars

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, December 19, 2015 8:53 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015 8:53 PM GMT

We look at this Sunday's game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Jacksonville Jaguars for our Lone Ranger NFL pick of the week.

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NFL Pick: Falcons +3 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada


Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) 1:00 EST
Each week in this spot I pick the most contrary selection on the board, we call it the LONE RANGER play of the week. When San Diego covered the 10 points against Kansas City last week (nearly sending the game to OT on the last play), it ran the record of the LONE RANGER game of the week to 12-2 ATS. None of these has been easy to bet, but when you get rewarded over 85% of the time, you have to stand up and take note.

This week’s Lone Ranger play of the week finds the Atlanta Falcons at 6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS traveling to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS. That means the team with the better record is receiving full value on the line. Yet no one will be interested in backing the Falcons today.


Atlanta Falcons
Former Seattle DC Dan Quinn took the reins of a Falcons team, who was an underperforming 6-10 SU last season. With a greatly improved defense, Atlanta bolted from the gate at 4-0 SU ATS and won six of their first seven games. From that point on, the bottom has fallen out for the Falcons. Today they enter on a six game losing streak, failing to cover 9 consecutive games. The nadir of their discontent came last week when they were outrushed by Carolina 32/142 to 16/54, and outgained 424-230 in a 38-0 white wash. A +4 net TO margin for the Panthers didn’t hurt.


Jacksonville Jaguars
At the same time that was going down, Jacksonville was recording one of its biggest wins in years. The Jags outrushed the Colts 154-95, and outgained them 380-322 in a 51-16 spanking of epic proportions. They won the second half by a score of 42-3, and have now totaled 90 points in the last two weeks. Be sure that the public is all over that. That is not to imply that the Jags, behind QB Bortles, are not one of the more improved teams of the league. Last year, they won just three games the entire season, and have averaged just 16 PPG in each of the previous four year (compared to 25 PPG this season). But what goes up in the NFL must come down, so it will be for the Jags this week, who could hardly feel threatened by the recent record of Atlanta.

With the stage set for this improbable turnaround, I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in this NFL pick on the Atlanta Falcons as our Lone Ranger play of the day.

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