NFL Picks: Betting Value Found on Eagles +10.5 vs. Patriots

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, December 4, 2015 8:53 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 4, 2015 8:53 PM GMT

In this article we look at the NFL odds for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots game to provide our Big Dog of the week NFL picks.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-10.5) 4:25 ET
The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Foxboro, Massachusetts to face the New England Patriots for this 4:25 ET kick. This game finds the Eagles entering off three consecutive defeats to fall to 4-7 SU ATS for the season. It would be easy to envision the Eagles tossing the towel in this spot. New England enters off their first loss of the season, a 30-24 comeback win by Denver, which resulted in our 5% NFL Underdog game of the year winner on the Denver Broncos. Knowing that New England is 7-0 ATS/loss is a good reason to back off the concept of undefeated letdown. It is clearly tough to back a Philly team, who 11 days ago in their Thanksgiving visit to Detroit looked for all the world like Philly HC Kelly was either trying to get fired, or his players were trying to get him fired.

After seeing that performance, it is clear that the public sides with the Patriots to bounce back. As a result of the Eagles’ disastrous recent results, this line has ballooned to double digit proportions, making it the clear choice as the Big Dog of the week.

 

Philadelphia Eagles
Following their (33-27) road victory at Dallas November 8th, it appeared that the Eagles were in decent position in the muddled NFC East. But disaster struck the following week when they lost 20-19 at home to Miami. That defeat precipitated the debacle of the last two weeks, which has seen the Eagles lose first at home to Tampa Bay (45-17), followed by their Turkey Day defeat at Detroit (45-14). That loss was every bit as bad as the final score, as Detroit held a 430-227 yardage edge. It will not help their declining defense that prime secondary performer Carroll is expected to miss this contest. Yet the return of QB Bradford could well prop up their offensive fortunes.

 

New England Patriots
Last week’s Sunday night defeat at the hands of the Broncos was a tough pill to swallow for New England. They led 21-7 in the fourth quarter, before the eventual (30-24) defeat. Rubbing salt in the wound, and adding to their injury list (including go to WRs and members of the OL), was the loss of TE Gronkowski for an undetermined number of weeks. That severely limits the receiving corps for QB Brady. It is duly noted that normally for New England it is next man up. The offense is clearly prolific averaging 32 PPG on 402 YPG and 6.3 YP play, those latter numbers being second best in the league.

But with all those New England injuries and the prideful bounce back of Philadelphia being imminent in the topsy turvy world of the NFL, I invite you to put the generous NFL odds in your favor and join me in my very contrary NFL pick on Philadelphia as the Big Dog of the week.

NFL Picks: Eagles +10.5 at 5Dimes 

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