NFL Picks: Betting Trends Support Packers to Cover ATS vs. Disappointing Lions

Kevin Stott

Saturday, November 14, 2015 6:40 PM GMT

Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb and the Green Bay Packers welcome Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Detroit Lions to Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Which side should we back with our NFL picks?

The hosts need a Win to stay on top of the division and to snap a 2-game Losing Streak. The good news for the Cheeseheads? Green Bay has defeated Detroit 24 straight times here in Wisconsin. So we can expect the wobbly Packers to get back on track here against the lowly Lions. Let’s preview this game in America’s Dairyland by looking at all of the key information, NFL Odds, Trends and significant Injuries and then make a couple of NFL picks based on what all of these various factors say.

 

Odds Overview
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers [Sunday 18:00] (FOX, Directv 708, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) welcome the Detroit Lions (1-7 SU, 1-7 ATS)—the team with both the worst SU and ATS records in the NFL—to Lambeau Field in Green Bay on Sunday in this Week 10 NFC North affair which has lost some luster with the Lions recent decline. Presently (Friday), the Packers are 10½- to 11-point favorites (CG Technologies, CarbonSports.ag, Bovada) at almost all sports books Offshore and Online and here in Las Vegas although there is one (Packers minus) 12 (+113, Sportbet) in the market. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Packers 10½-point favorites released in the late Spring. The Total here ranges now from 48½ (Station Casinos) to 49½ (CarbonSports.ag, BetUS) while the Money Line sees Green Bay as -500 favorites with the host underdog Lions priced at heavy +423 on the takeback (Pinnacle). The Packers Team Total Points here is 29½ (Ladbrokes) while the Lions Team Total Points is at 19 (Ladbrokes). The First Half point spread sees the Packers lined at -7 (Paddy Power; Lions +7 -125).

 

Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions (1000/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) have had the worst possible season, and the team got rid of its President and General Manager two weeks and Head Coach Jim Caldwell, QB Matthew Stafford and star WR Calvin Johnson (Probable) could all be on their way out to. For now, it’s do what you can with what you have so Jim Bob Cooter is in at Offensive Coordinator and Joe Lombardi is out, but with the worst SU Record (1-7) in the NFL, maybe losing and getting the #1 Pick may be the Lions best route.

Here, Head Coach Jim Caldwell and the Lions (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) will hope Stafford can make the best of his talented Skill Position guys like the aforementioned WR Johnson, WR Golden Tate, TE Brandon Pettigrew, RB Joique Bell and Rookie (Nebraska) RB Ameer Abdullah, among others. On the Injury front here on Sunday for Detroit, T Corey Robinson (Ankle) and CB Darius Slay (Concussion) are both listed as Questionable while CB Alex Carter (Ankle) is listed as Probable along with stud WR and Georgia Tech product Johnson. LB DeAndre Levy (Hip), C Darren Keyton (Knee), RB Zach Zenner (Chest), DT Tyrunn Walker (Ankle) and DT Andre Fluellen (Undisclosed) are all on the Injured-Reserve List for the Lions.

 

Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers come into this game off of two tough Losses to the Broncos in Denver in Week 8—in which Rodgers was limited to microscopic 77 Passing yards—and to the Panthers in Carolina in Week 9, without star WR Jordy Nelson who is out for the season, with QB Aaron Rodgers and RB Eddie Lacy both playing a little suspect, and the team’s OL and Defense having questions of their own. Is this a byproduct of having to play the Broncos-Panthers back-to-back on the Road or a glimpse of the real Packers? Or maybe just a little of both? Green Bay (3-9 ATS in its L12 games in November) will hope to rebound here and what better opponent to have served up on a platter in Brown County that the lowly Lions—a team Green Bay has beaten 24 straight times in the state of Wisconsin.

Packers (6-3 ATS L9) Head Coach Mike McCarthy has named RB James Starks his starter over the unproductive Lacy, so vets like WR James Jones and FB John Kuhn will have to shoulder more of the load on Offense along with star WR Randall Cobb, WR Davante Adams, TE Richard Rodgers and others. On the Injury front for Green Bay (6/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365), T Bryan Bulaga (Undisclosed) and the aforementioned Lacy (Groin) are both listed as Probable an expect them both to play, while veteran WR Jones (Quadricep), Rookie (Stanford) WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle), LB Mike Neal (Undisclosed), CB Damarious Randall (Undisclosed), CB Sam Shields (Shoulder), CB Quinten Rollins (Shoulder) and CB Casey Hayward (Head) are all listed as Questionable while S Sean Richardson (Neck), TE Andrew Quarless (Knee), DT Josh Boyd (Ankle), LB Sam Barrington (Ankle), and, of course, prolific WR Nelson (Knee), all sit on the Injured-Reserve.

 

Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends, Weather Forecast and Game Expectations
When these two played last season, the Packers lost 19-7 as 1½-point underdogs in Week 3 at Ford Field in Detroit and then covered by 1½ points as 8½-point chalks in Week 17 here in Green Bay, winning 30-20. The Packers are a respectable 6-2 ATS the L8 ATS against the Lions and 4-0 ATS the L4 here at Lambeau Field winning by 4, 7, 13 and 10 points but, as mentioned, Rodgers and the Packers will go to this game with a hobbled and unproductive RB Lacy (Groin) and of course without their most productive Offensive player last season (WR Nelson). But still, Green Bay is one of the better teams in the NFL while Detroit may be the worst in the league right now and Dome teams often struggle when having to play outside in the colder months.

Plus, 24 straight L’s in America’s Dairyland. And there are more Trends to host support Green Bay here: Detroit is 3-13 ATS its L16 games on Grass (Lambeau Field); the Lions are 2-8 ATS their L10 on the Road; the Packers are 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in Week 10; and, Green Bay is a remarkable 39-17 ATS the L56 against the NFC North (69.6%). That’s the one with teeth. With Kuhn, Starks, Jones, Cobb and both Rodgers coming through, the margin of victory (Green Bay) here should be around 15+ points with the host Packers bitter and needing the victory to restore order in Brown County—where the Weather Forecast on Sunday calls for Mostly Sunny skies, SW Winds of 6-11 mph, Relative Humidity of 53% and a Game-time High of 53°—and having the perfect opponent for the situation.

Predicted Final Score: Packers 34 Lions 17

NFL Picks: Packers -10 (Sky Bet), Packers -3 1st Quarter (Paddy Power), Packers 1st Quarter Moneyline -150 (William Hill)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837125, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]