NFL Picks: Betting Trends Suggest That Bears & Lions Will Go 'Under' 44.5

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 17, 2015 10:47 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015 10:47 PM UTC

We take a total look at the NFC North clash between the Bears and Lions by analysing current NFL betting trends and form and then serve up our choice prediction in O/U betting.

Chicago Bears (2-3 SU, 1-1 away)
The Chicago Bears are riding a two-game winning streak into week 6 NFL betting, improving to 2-3 SU after a rather poor start to the season. They’ll be looking to improve to 3-3 SU at the expense of the hapless Detroit Lions, who are winless on the season and in dire straits in the broad spectrum of the season.

In over-under betting, the Bears are 2-3 on the season. Importantly, they are riding a three-game UNDER streak, with the total falling UNDER pre-set totals of 43, 44 and 44, respectively, against the Seahawks, Raiders and Chiefs.

Odds makers rolled with a 44-point total on this clash at early doors, which has stayed put somewhat surprisingly across the board. Only a handful of sportsbooks have moved the line up to 44.5-points. We can assume, therefor, they are comfortable with this opening total. Otherwise, why else has there been little reaction when various outlets are recording an overwhelming lean towards the OVER –according to Vegas Insider, 95% of the public is heavily pounding the OVER for this game as NFL odds sites are recording 75% of the public pounding the OVER.

As it is, that trend stands in contrast to certain realities about both teams. Where the Bears are concerned, they are averaging 17.2 points scored and 28.4 points conceded. However, during their winning run, they’ve improved on the defensive side of the ball significantly by allowing just 18.5 points per game.

As away team or away underdogs, the Bears have gone 0-2 in O/U betting, but against divisional rivals this season they are 1-0 in O/U betting. Some allowance has to be made for the fact that game was played against the Packers, who are only one of the most lethal offensively in the league. After a win, they are 0-1 in O/U betting, which is a small cross-section seeing as they have just two wins on the season.


Detroit Lions (0-5 SU, 0-2 home)
The Detroit Lions are 2-3 in O/U betting this season having cashed on the OVER in week 1 in a 33-28 loss at San Diego. In week 5, they cashed on the OVER largely down to the brilliant play of Carson Palmer and the Cardinals, hanging a 42-17 loss on the Lions.

Overall, the Lions offense has stuttered since opening week. It’s the only game in which they managed to put up more than 20-points. In all successive games they went under 20-points scored for an average of 13.75 points scored per game. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the OVER in this game. On the flipside, their defense is leaking like a sieve allowing 27.6 points per game since the start of the season.

The Cardinals snapped a three-game UNDER streak by the Lions in week 5, a run of form that featured games with pre-set totals of 44 (@Minnesota), 45 (@ home to Denver) and 43 (@ Seattle). Against Minnesota, they combined score hit the UNDER by a difference of 2-points, against Denver the difference was 9-points and against Seattle the difference was 20-points. So far, the Lions have played one divisional game against Minnesota, which means they are 0-1 in O/U betting against the  NFC North.


NFL Betting Verdict
Looking at all these established NFL betting trends by the Bears and Lions on the season, the UNDER overwhelming seems to be the right play. Of course, NFL betting trends can turn on a dime, all it takes is a change in form, attitude, fortunes or the like. Lions are desperate to get into the win column and they could finally light up in week 6 NFL betting. However, until we actually have evidence of it, we’re not banking on a maybe. So we’re leaning towards UNDER 44.5-points on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 

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