NFL Picks: Betting Trends Predict Under for Buccaneers vs. Redskins

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 1:13 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 1:13 PM UTC

We’re going to take an early glance at Sunday’s NFL game between Tampa Bay and Washington. Go inside to read our detailed analysis and find out why we like the total in this game.

Desperation Game for Bucs and Skins
The Washington Redskins (2-4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) will square off in a NFC clash on Sunday. The opening kickoff at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland is slated for 1:00 PM ET. According to early NFL betting odds at The Greek, Washington is a 3.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 43.5. These teams met last season in Washington, and Tampa Bay came away with a 27-7 win.


The Skinny on Tampa Bay
The Bucs allowed 31 and 37 points respectively in their last two games, and it was hardly reflective of their defensive effort. The 37 points they allowed to Carolina came as a direct result of their 5 turnovers committed. As a matter of fact, they held the Panthers to just 244 yards of total offense in that contest. In their previous game against Jacksonville they allowed 31 points despite holding the Jaguars to 325 yards. The Bucs have gone under the total in both of their road contests this season, and have gone under the number in six of the previous seven away games.


Best Defense is a Ball Control Offense
Washington has executed a winning formula at home that they’ve been unable to duplicate on the road. In three games at FedEx Field this season, they’ve dominated the time of possession to a tune of 38:55 per contest. The key to that polarizing statistic has been a successful rushing attack that’s averaged 157 yards per game. It’s hard for opponents to score when they don’t have the ball. Opponents are averaging a paltry 15.7 points and 263.0 yards per game at FedEx Field thus far, and all three of those contests went under the total. Washington has now gone under the total in seven straight home games when there’s a total of 47.0 or less.


NFL Totals Betting System and Pick
Tampa Bay is averaging 22.0 points per game this season while Washington is at 19.5 for the year. The Bucs are coming off a 38-31 win over Jacksonville and a 37-23 loss to Carolina in their previous two games. The combination of all that data qualifies for a profitable betting angle.

Any team (Tampa Bay) with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, coming off two consecutive games in which there were a combined 50 points or more being scored, and both teams are averaging 18 to 23 points per contest, resulted in that team going 52-20 under the total since 1983. The average total in those games was 44.5, and the average points scored per contest was 38.4.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair and one of my NFL picks this week will be indicative of that prediction.

NFL Picks: Play on Tampa Bay & Washington UNDER 43.5 at The Greek

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