The New Orleans Saints lost in Week 9 as the favorites. That makes the Saints a solid football pick for Week 10, if you believe in the power of NFL betting trends.
Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 10: 30-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total
Past performance does not guarantee future results. We were reminded of that fact last week when the Tennessee Titans (+7 away) beat the New Orleans Saints 34-28 in overtime, despite having just fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Teams in that position had gone 7-14 ATS since 2002. Oh well. Make that 8-14 ATS now.
With that in mind, we present you with our featured NFL betting trend for Week 10, and it involves the Saints. According to trend guru Walter Cherepinksy, teams who lost their previous game as the favorites are 372-347 ATS since 2002. More specifically, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 15-10 ATS in this situation. That's a good sign going into this Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) against Washington. The Saints are 1-point road faves on our NFL odds board at press time, with most of the early action landing on the Big Easy.
Baby, Don't Forget My Humber
This hasn't been a particularly good season for the Saints (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS). They lost their first three games, thanks in part to injuries on the defense. Things got better. New Orleans was on a three-game winning streak going into Week 9, but the Saints defense is starting to fall apart again; linebackers Hau'oli Kikaha (ankle), Dannell Ellerbe (hip) and Ramon Humber (hamstring) all ended up missing the Titans game.
New Orleans has been filling the void by signing free agents off the street – like former Carolina Panthers LB James Anderson, who joined the team on Monday. It's possible the Saints will get some or all of their missing defenders back in time for Sunday's game, so keep an eye on the news wires to see who practices this week. Otherwise, New Orleans might not have the personnel to be a proper NFL pick in Week 10.
The Washington Potatoes
Speaking of trends, Washington (3-5 SU and ATS) closed as a 13.5-point road dog for last week's game against the New England Patriots, so clearly that's why New England was able to win 27-10. If the spread had stayed over 14 points, surely the Patriots wouldn't have covered after going 2-9 ATS in their previous 11 games with that much chalk on the board.
Actually, New England covered because Washington played an incredibly awful football game. Two untimely turnovers, just 37 yards rushing on 15 carries, getting caught on a sneaky onside kick by the Patriots – not good. This had been a surprisingly decent team in D.C. before getting spanked by the defending champions, so it's too early to put a fork in Washington. But feeding time could be just around the corner.
Free NFL Pick: Take the Saints PK at 5Dimes