NFL Picks: Betting Trend Suggests Grabbing Redskins +15 vs. Patriots

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 7, 2015 6:14 PM GMT

Find out why we like the Washington Redskins as our Big Dog of the Week NFL pick when they visit the unbeaten New England Patriots on Sunday.

Washington Redskins vs. New England Patriots (-15), Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 EST
The Washington Redskins, with two weeks to prepare, travel to face the New England Patriots in this non-conference battle. The game is scheduled for 1:00 ET in Foxboro, MA. The contest features a 3-4 SU ATS Redskins team against an undefeated New England team who continues to easily put away their opponents. Little question that New England gets this victory, but as the public continues to line up on the Brady Bunch, and the prices continue to sky rocket, it is most unlikely they will continue to get the covers.

 

Washington Redkins
When we last left the Washington Redskins, they were recording a narrow victory against Tampa Bay (31-30) in the nation’s capital. That reversed the results of the two previous games, which were road losses at winning teams Atlanta (25-19) and the Jets (34-20). The Redskins do have four losses, but none of those have been by more than 14 points. The season began positively for Washington, who was controlling the line of scrimmage in earlier contests, at one point leading the NFL in rushing margin. Those numbers have since disintegrated and find the Redskins now being outrushed 128/4.9 to 99/3.7. Against many power teams, that is a solid negative. But the Patriots are virtually eschewing the ground game, running the ball an average of only 22 times per game, the third fewest in the NFL.

 

New England Patriots
With the Patriots running just 22 plays per game, it is amazing they are averaging 36 PPG on 415 YPG. Credit the strong right arm of Brady, who is completing 69% of his passes to lead a Patriot passing game that averages an unheard of 335 PYPG. And he is doing so with an astounding 20/1 ratio. The Patriots have 10 days to prepare for this contest, as they have not taken the field since the (36-7) win over Miami 10 days ago. In that contest, they outgained a hot Miami team 437-270, and profited from a +2 net turnover margin as a result of a pair of interceptions.

 

Betting Analysis
It would be a nice story if the Patriots, in the face of Deflate gate, could run the table and thumb their nose at the NFL. At this writing, it would seem only road games at Denver in late November and at the Jets in late December would be stumbling blocks toward that goal. But as the victories mount, so does the price tag. That leaves plenty of room for backdoor coverage. At least that has perennially been the case for a New England team who is 4-16 ATS when laying 13 or more points. With the NFL odds in our favor, I invite you to join me for my NFL pick of the week with the Washington Redskins as the Big Dog.

NFL Picks: Redskins +15 at 5Dimes

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