NFL Picks for Betting the Total in Monday's Bears vs. Jets

Jason Lake

Monday, September 22, 2014 2:53 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 22, 2014 2:53 PM UTC

The Chicago Bears and New York Jets have each split their first two games against the football totals. Which side of the over/under deserves our attention for the latest episode of Monday Night Football?

Jason’s Record After Week 2: 4-7 ATS, 1-2-1 Totals

Profit: minus-8.8 units

The last time we saw the Chicago Bears in action, they were busy scoring touchdowns. Three of them, unanswered, in the fourth quarter of last week’s improbable 28-20 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. It was an eye-opening display from a Chicago offense that could only produce three touchdowns in its first seven quarters combined. It was also just enough to cash in the 'over' on the posted NFL total of 47 points.

The New York Jets had a wake-up call of their own in Week 2. But they scored all three of their touchdowns in the opening 20 minutes against the Green Bay Packers, who stormed back to win 31-24. Another win for 'over' bettors on the 46.5-point total. The over/under bar is set a little lower for Monday night’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) between the Bears and Jets at the New Meadowlands; as we go to press, the total is stuck at 45.5 points, exactly where it was when the NFL odds opened.


Achieve Balance
You may recall from our look at Monday’s ATS pick that this game wasn’t getting much love from the NFL betting faithful. Business has picked up slightly since then, but we’re still only seeing the level of action that’s usually reserved for a ho-hum early Sunday regional game. On top of that, we’ve only had enough action on the total to deliver one consensus snapshot: The 'over' was getting 56 percent support last Monday afternoon.

Things have changed a bit since then. According to our man on the street (i.e. The Internet), the 'under' started pulling in roughly the same 56 percent later that Monday, and for the most part kept that edge throughout the week. By the time you read this, the general football betting public may have moved the needle back in the other direction, but it looks like the online sportsbooks nailed the Telemark landing with this total.

Check Out the Monday Night Prop Betting Picks for Bears vs. Jets!

Use Foresight
Of course, the sportsbooks take their cue from the linemakers in Vegas, and they increasingly rely on computer projections to help them come up with their numbers. But we’ve seen some discrepancy lately between two of the more popular projections out there. The lads from numberFire have been pumping out higher combined scores than TeamRankings, usually with several points separating the two. For Monday night, numberFire has the Bears and Jets combining for 50.4 points, while TeamRankings has it at 44.3.

We try not to put too much stock in these projections – again, they’re already folded into the NFL betting lines for the most part. You’ll also find a pretty wide range of opinion amongst the computers. They’re still run by humans, after all. For example, Donchess has Monday’s game producing 49.4 points, while WhatIfSports is predicting a mere 39 points scored. Still, it’s curious to see numberFire’s projections soaring into the night sky.

Speaking of which, computers are getting better and better at predicting the weather, and they say we’ve got a fairly nice evening in store for East Rutherford: just a 10-percent chance of rain, with temperatures in the mid-60s and a light breeze. These are excellent conditions if you’re betting the 'over' in this matchup. That’s the side we’re going to take. The earliest action was on the 'over' , which is presumably sharp action, and we’ve already got the favored Jets as our ATS pick. Do you feel like an NFL parlay today? If so, take the 'over' with the favorites for your NFL pick, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Put one unit on 'Over' 45.5 (–104) at Matchbook

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