NFL Picks: Betting Recap of Week 3 - Winners & Losers

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

Which teams were winners and losers on the field and at betting shops in week 3? We recap the entire week’s slate of NFL betting matchups and report on emerging trends.

NFL Betting Recap Week 3
Week 3 of the NFL betting season served up a few big upsets, several lopsided beat downs and a couple of bounce backs by 0-2 SU teams going into the weekend.

We begin with an overview of how all the teams performed in Table 1.

Table 1: NFL Betting Trends Week 3 and Overall Betting Trends On the Season

Winners at the Betting Counter
The biggest favourites to cash on the NFL odds board were the Seattle Seahawks, who beat the hapless Chicago Bears 26-0 and covered as the whopping 16.5-point home chalk. Not to be outdone, the New England Patriots (14-point home chalk at closing doors) also covered handily in a 51-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. As did the Green Bay Packers (5.5-point home chalk at closing doors) in a 38-28 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Monday Night Football betting.

The Texans finally got into the win column with a 19-9 win over the Bucs. Texans opened as the 3-point home chalk but closed as high as 6-points across many sportsbooks. The huge jump notwithstanding, the Texans covered with some points to spare.

Other home teams to come through for their NFL backers were the Giants (-3), Vikings (-2) and Cardinals (-7).

The biggest home underdogs to come through for NFL bettors – the few that were so brave to back them on their NFL picks – were the Tennessee Titans  , who covered as the 3-point home pups in a 35-33 win. It’s worth noting the Titans were close to pulling off the upset over the Colts after building a significant lead before the fourth quarter.

Road Underdogs that cashed at the betting counter include this season’s vogue NFL pick Buffalo Bills. The Bills upset the Dolphins 41-14 to both win and cover as the 1-point road underdogs. The Raiders (+3.5), the Eagles (+3), the Bengals (+1.5) and Steelers (+1) also came through both SU and against the spread in week 3 NFL betting.

The biggest road underdog to cash though were the New Orleans Saints (+9.5) in a 27-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Early NFL odds had the game installed on a 3-point spread but when news of Drew Brees being forced to sit out the game with a shoulder injury spread, the NFL lines jumped spectacularly.

Denver Broncos were the only road favourites to both win SU and cash (-3) in a 24-12 win over the Lions. Falcons, meanwhile, upset the Cowboys on the road with the game settling on a pick’em at closing doors.

The Winless Quartet
If somebody had said the Bears would go winless in the first three rounds of the season, few would have taken issue with such a prediction. Had that same somebody said the Ravens, Lions and Saints would also be winless after three rounds, 99% of the NFL betting public would have dismissed that notion as outrageous.

Tale told, these four teams have yet to crack the win column this season. Of this sad quartet, three are 0-3 ATS as well, with only the Saints emerging with a 1-2 ATS mark. The Bears, meanwhile, boast the biggest losing differential – an average 19.7-point margin of defeat, thanks largely to a 26-0 shutout by the Seahawks in week 3.

The Big Winners
Through three rounds of the NFL, the big winners both on the field and at the betting shops are the Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Packers and Falcons, all of which are both 3-0 SU and ATS ahead of week 4 NFL betting. Pittsburgh Steelers are just 2-1 SU but a perfect 3-0 ATS while the undefeated Patriots and Panthers are both 3-0 SU but 2-1 ATS. Of this high-profile group, the Cardinals boast the biggest margin of victory at 25.7-points per game, skewed heavily by the 47-7 rout of the Niners in week 3. Patriots are not far behind with a 16.3-point margin of victory after hanging a whopping 51-17 loss on the Jaguars.

Total Point Of View
As far as total betting goes, the Titans, Raiders, Cardinals and Browns have cashed consistently for OVER bettors with a 3-0 O/U mark. On the opposite spectrum sit the Vikings and (somewhat surprisingly) the Eagles, having cashed on the UNDER on each and every occasion thus far this season (0-3 O/U).

Patriots, Bills, Bengals, Niners, Jaguars, Saints and Dolphins are just some of the many that are 2-1 in OVER-UNDER betting this season. Colts, Steelers, Seahawks and Broncos, meanwhile, are just some of the teams that are 1-2 OVER-UNDER. Texans and Panthers have gone 1-1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting this season.

How Did We Do With Our NFL Picks in Week 3?
Not bad at all. Not bad at all.

We went 12-4 SU and ATS and 8-8-0 in O/U picks to keep us in the green for the week across the board. Overall, we improve to 29-19-0 ATS and 27-21-0 SU. In total betting we improved to 23-25-0 but remain in the red. Something to work on in the coming weeks.

In Table 3, we rundown through all the NFL picks and shine the light on the matchups we got right and where we missed the mark.

Table 3: Rundown of Week 3 NFL Picks ATS, SU and Total – Winners & Losers


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