NFL Picks: Betting Recap & Emerging Trends As We Head Into Week 3

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 8:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 8:10 PM UTC

Week 2 is in the books. What NFL betting trends emerge? How faves and underdogs performed ATS? What were the biggest upsets? Those are just some of the many angles we cover in this column.

NFL Standings After Two Weeks
As week 2 NFL betting closed, lines were drawn in divisions and conferences proper. Fascinatingly so as teams are falling all over the place and, in many cases, contrary to preseason expectations. Who would have banked on Super Bowl 50 favorites in preseason markets, Seattle Seahawks, going 0-2 SU to start the season? Or Super Bowl 50 contenders, Indianapolis Colts, going 0-2 SU to start the season? (Well, not to brag but we did pick against both of these teams in both weeks on our NFL picks).

For that matter, who’d have predicted the Ravens going 0-2 or the Eagles going 0-2 to start the season? Other teams that emerge 0-2 after two weeks include the Giants, Texans, Lions and Saints. Looking at that list of teams, most are some of the best teams in the NFL – or were deemed so according to their results last season.

As it is, the AFC East is in pretty good shape with the Patriots and Jets riding high behind a 2-0 SU mark, with the Bills and Dolphins both 1-1 SU. Another division that is in good shape is the AFC West, with the Broncos up 2-0 SU and the remaining three sides, Raiders, Chargers and Chiefs, all level 1-1 SU.

Last season, the NFC South was considered the worst division in the league, but as it is one could argue the AFC South is making a run for that dubious honour this term. One could argue the NFC East could also be in the running in the next few weeks if the Giants and Eagles (both 0-2 SU) don’t revive their campaigns and the Cowboys start to nosedive without Tony Romo calling the shots (out for 8-to-10 weeks with a fractured clavicle).


NFL Betting Recap Week 2
Week 2 was all about the underdogs as they edged the favourites both SU and ATS (7-9-0). Home teams were winners against away teams in the majority of games with a 9-7-0 SU and ATS record, while the UNDER edged the OVER 7-8-1.

Table 1: NFL Betting Trends Week 2 and Overall NFL Betting Trends


The biggest underdog to cash in week 2 – and the shocker of all shocks – were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9 at closing doors) with an upset (on the road no less) over the Saints. The Steelers emerged as the biggest home favorites (-6 at closing doors) to cover against the Niners in a whopping 43-18 beat down. Indeed, they almost singlehandedly cracked the 45-point total trading for the game.

Denver Broncos, matched as the 3-point underdogs on the road, defied the NFL odds with a 31-24 upset win over the Chiefs. Well, it was an upset according to the NFL betting markets but nobody who has followed the Broncos-Chiefs rivalry is buying it as an upset. More par for the course as the Broncos extended their winning record over the Chiefs to seven straight since 2012.

Other road Underdogs that pulled off the so-called upsets included the Falcons (+2 at closing doors), Jets (+6), Cowboys (+6.5) and…drumroll… Patriots (+1.5 at closing). That the defending champions were matched as the underdogs in week 2 is rather surprising, given their convincing season opener and leading the NFL power rankings. As mentioned earlier the Bucs were the biggest road underdogs to cash at 9-points against the spread. The Arizona Cardinals (-2) were the only road favorites to come through for NFL bettors.


How Did We Do On Our Week 2 NFL Picks?
Not good at all. Yup, we’re not going to pussyfoot around or skirt the issue. We were a cringe-worthy 4-12 ATS and SU and, a slightly better –but nothing to write home about – 6-10 in over-under betting in week 2. See Table 2 to understand where we went wrong.

Fortunately, our week 1 ATS picks were extremely solid going 13-3. So too were our SU and Totals NFL picks that kept us in the green..

Table 2: Breakdown Of Our Week 2 Game-by-Game Picks: Winners and Losers ATS, SU and Total


Our Overall NFL Picks Record
As mentioned above, we had an excellent week 1 so our overall total in two weeks isn’t so bad against the spread. We are still in the green there. In SU and Total betting we’ve dipped into the red, but ever so slightly. We have a job ahead of us in week 3 NFL betting to get back into the green. Needs must.

Table 3: Running Weekly Total For Our NFL Picks


Looking Ahead To Week 3 NFL Betting
Week 3 looms ahead with several intriguing matchups, mainly the winless Giants hosting the Redskins on Thursday Night Football and the winless Colts taking on divisional rivals Titans for what must be a must-win game for Andrew Luck and Co., if they are to make good on their playoff promise. Other intriguing divisional clashes that practically leap off the page include the Cardinals vs. the Niners at Levi Stadium and the Bills vs. the Dolphins. Check out our game-by-game predictions and picks for week 3 NFL betting before hitting up your choice sportsbook with your NFL picks.

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