Week 1 was pretty disappointing for the Indianapolis Colts. They're still the popular NFL pick for Monday night's matchup against the refurbished New York Jets.
|Jets To Score First +140 (best line at BetOnline)
Colts To Score First -155 (best line at 5Dimes)
|Longerst FG 44½ Ov -115 (best line at betDSI)
Longerst FG Un +100 (best line at Bookmaker)
|Highest Score 1st Half -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
High Score 2H + OT -105 (best line at BetOnline)
|1st Score TD -155 (best line at SportsBetting)
FG or Safety +145 (best line at 5Dimes)
Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 15: 4-3 ATS; 2-2 Total
There is absolutely no need to panic about the Indianapolis Colts. Mild concern would be a far more appropriate response to Sunday's 27-14 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills (+1 at home). We had this game flagged as a potential upset, and the Bills were available at +3 when we added them to our Sunday Ticket, so it's not as if we couldn't see this coming. Besides, the Colts started two of the previous three seasons with an away loss. Things got better.
Having said that, Indianapolis didn't look very good in Week 1. Certainly not as good as their next opponents, the New York Jets, who stomped a 31-10 mudhole in the Cleveland Browns (+3.5 away) and walked it dry. The Colts will host the Jets on this week's instalment of Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN); our NFL odds board shows Indianapolis dancing around –7 as we go to press, up from –6.5 when we last checked in.
Tales From the Strip
Our first expanded consensus numbers have arrived for this matchup, and it's all looking very good for the Colts. They're bringing in nearly 55 percent of bettors and over 77 percent of the money, including the lone $1000+ bet on the survey. The Jets have generated the lowest overall action of any team that's cleared the minimum data threshold thus far.
Maybe everyone here at the ranch read too many stories from Vegas over the summer, but every time we see a point spread balancing on a magic number like seven, we think about those high rollers who sprinkle a little cash on one side early in the week, then bomb the other side after the line moves. This could be one of those situations. The Colts may still be 24-17-2 ATS during the Chuck Pagano-Andrew Luck Era, but they had some real issues dealing with Buffalo. Offensive line? Problematic. Frank Gore? Ineffective. Defense? Special teams? No and no.
The DYAR of Living Dangerously
As for New York's win over the Browns, well, it was only the Browns. Once you adjust for defense, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick rated in the middle of the pack at +27 DYAR for his Week 1 performance, or No. 17 out of the 35 quarterbacks who saw action. But at least that was better than his Colts counterpart – Luck finished No. 22 overall at +3 DYAR.
This might be a good time to recall our Week 2 betting trend, where teams who covered in Week 1 went 26-22-1 ATS the following game versus teams who honked their season-openers. The Jets may very well be at the start of a beautiful friendship under new head coach Todd Bowles. We'll recommend backing the New York Jets with your NFL picks in this situation, and you should definitely think about giving the public a chance to dump some money on the Colts before pulling the trigger.
Free NFL Pick: Take the Jets +7 (–106) at Bookmaker