NFL Picks for Betting False Favorites and Top Dogs in Week 9

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 7:10 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 7:10 PM GMT

This is far and away the most difficult week to find sports picks for this article & video utilizing the sportsbooks betting odds, with only a dozen games to go through for our NFL picks.

In addition, we have a couple other games having no lines when I began this assignment, further limiting my choices. Nonetheless, I am a professional football handicapper and my mission each week is to provide the best possible options and I will look to better 15-9, 62.5% mark on NFL picks for this article.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of SBR's Odds Board.

 

False Favorite: New York Giants Tumble in Tampa
Let's put this way, it is not easy to find a way to lose in the NFL when scoring 49 points, but the New York Giants did. With no pass rush and injury-riddled secondary, New York was burned for 511 yards passing and have taken over as the league's worst pass defense.

Tampa Bay (whom I correctly selected last week) has covered three straight and should have a matching trio of victories except for blowing Washington contest, has to feel very good about returning home. With QB Jameis Winston showing he's learning on the run with fewer turnovers and more check-down throws, the Buccaneers can exploit Giants defense.  With the G-Men 1-10 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in last game the last three seasons, they fall outright to Bucs.

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +133 at 5Dimes

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False Favorite: Green Bay Bumbles in Charlotte
It was there for the world to see Sunday night. Green Bay can be had by teams that play power football, who can rush the passer and run the ball. With each passing game, the loss of Jordy Nelson matters more, with the Packers down to 27th in passing in spite of Aaron Rodgers, because the receivers are not getting open, which has not been a secret among scouts all season.

Carolina certainly fits the profile of physical, leading the league in rushing yards and attempted rushes. This will force the Green Bay secondary to play closer to line of scrimmage and the safeties in particular are hardly tough guys, who want to stick their helmets into the pile. Three Packers opponents have been willing to stick with the run and had 30 more rush attempts and they have averaged 180 yards a game at 5.2 yards a carry. With Green Bay 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game the last three seasons, they are a false favorite.

NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (+103) at Pinnacle

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Top Dog: Chicago Does Not Stumble in San Diego
Both Chicago and San Diego are too reliant on their quarterbacks. The reasons are varied as to why, but among them is lack of running game, with the Bears at 3.9 YPC and the Chargers even worse at 3.4 YPC. This places all the emphasis on throwing the ball and while Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers are capable of doing so, these clubs are a combined 4-11 for a reason.

Both quarterbacks have been a better in not being like Andrew Luck this season and committing so many turnovers, but both are could at any time as we have witnessed previously. Overall, I think Cutler is playing better than Rivers despite the passing yards and in past three contests, Chicago has created four turnovers while San Diego has a big fat Zero.

The Bolts handing out -3.5 point with a team that is has lost five times by a touchdown or less and is 6-12 and 5-13 ATS in last 18 contests, makes them a beleaguered home favorite.

NFL Pick: Chicago Bears +3.5 (+101) at Pinnacle

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