NFL Picks: Bet Undervalued Chiefs (+7) vs. Broncos to Cover Spread

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 3:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2015 3:50 PM UTC

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos may have tasted defeat, but they're still the preferred football pick for Sunday's late matinee against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 8: 29-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 20-27 Total

Oh dear. The Denver Broncos (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) have finally fallen from the ranks of the undefeated, dropping a 27-24 decision to the Indianapolis Colts (+3.5 at home) on Sunday. For a change, Denver's defense didn't carry the day; the Colts went turnover-free while racking up 365 yards of offense and controlling the ball for over 38 minutes. Peyton Manning: now 0-4 ATS versus his former club.

We'd certainly expect a better effort from the Broncos this Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) when they host the Kansas City Chiefs. However, while the Chiefs were just 3-5 SU and ATS during the first half of the season, they go into the second half after taking the bye in Week 9, and that Denver defense will be missing two key players for Week 10. Kansas City could be a tasty value pick as a 6.5-point underdog on our NFL odds board at press time.


Orange Chalk
Early bettors aren't convinced. The Broncos are getting a 53-percent lean on our consensus reports, with over 70 percent of the action landing on the home side. That gives Denver an average bet size of $117, compared to $55 for the Chiefs. There are also two $1000+ bets for the Broncos showing on our survey. Kansas City? Bupkes.

Maybe some of this early action is just there to goose the spread onto and over the magic number seven, for some even bigger bets on the Chiefs later in the week. There are so many red flags here for Denver fans; you've got the bye, you've got the “divisional dog of +7 or more” trend potentially in play – and you've got those absentees on the Broncos defense.


Oh, a Wiseguy, Eh?
Or do you? The jury is still out on CB Aqib Talib; he was suspended for one game after poking Colts TE Dwayne Allen in the eye, but Talib has appealed that suspension. His hearing was scheduled for Tuesday, and we're not going to speculate what the league's decision will be. They might ban Talib for life. They might throw him a parade.

We also don't know for sure that DE/LB DeMarcus Ware (back) will miss Sunday's game, either, after he had to leave the Colts game before halftime and didn't return. Ware has chronic back troubles and has already missed one game this season. It looks like he could miss at least another two games, but again, nobody knows.

We do know that the Chiefs are prone to being undervalued at this point. They've played well enough to earn 4.4 Estimated Wins at Football Outsiders, while Denver is sitting at 5.5 EW. We have to make our choice now for the purposes of this article, so we're recommending the Chiefs for your Week 10 NFL picks, but we also suggest you wait for more news about Talib, and preferably Ware, before pulling the trigger.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Chiefs +7 (–125) at Bovada

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