NFL Picks: Bet Under on Underrated Defenses for Panthers & Cowboys

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, November 24, 2015 8:34 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2015 8:34 PM UTC

We’re going to examine Thursday’s NFL game between Carolina and Dallas. Go inside to read our highly informative betting preview article on this contest, culminating with our NFL pick on the total.

Turkey Day in “The Big D”
Dallas hosts their annual Thanksgiving Day game against the undefeated Carolina Panthers. The opening kickoff is slated for 4:30 PM ET. According to current NFL betting odds at Heritage, Carolina is a 1.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 46.0. These teams last met in 2012, and Dallas came away with a 19-14 road win. As a matter of fact, Dallas has won five straight, and nine of their previous ten games versus Carolina.


Panthers underrated Defense
Cam Newton has received the majority of attention during the Panthers 10-0 start, and rightfully so. However, Carolina’s defense has flown a bit under the radar with no pun intended, and especially so on the road. Carolina is 4-0 SU&ATS in away games this season. Their defense has certainly been a catalyst to their success in those contests. The Panthers have allowed just 16.2 points and 315.0 yards per game during that stretch. In their last two games against Washington and Tennessee, they allowed 13.0 points and 264.0 yards per contest. Carolina has also done a magnificent job of creating turnovers. They forced opponents to turn the ball over 25 times in 10 games, and that includes 14 takeaways during their previous four contests.


Return of Romo and Cowboys Defense
Tony Romo returned to the lineup last Sunday after a seven game absence, and Dallas came away with an impressive 24-14 win at Miami. Further proof that success in the NFL is quarterback driven pertains to Dallas this season. The Cowboys are 3-0 with Tony Romo as their starter, and 0-7 without him. Switching gears, the Dallas defense has been superb in its previous two games against Miami and Tampa Bay. During those contests, they allowed 12.0 points and 268.5 yards per game.


Recent Trends favor Under the Total
Since the start of the 2012 season, Carolina has gone 8-0 under when they’re +3.0 to -3.0, and the total is 45.0 to 49.0. Those contests averaged a combined 35.0 points scored per game.

Dallas has gone 8-1 under in their last nine home games, when the total was 44.5 or more, and they allowed 28 points or less in their previous game.


NFL Totals Betting Angle
Carolina has scored 27 points or more in each of its last eight games. Dallas has allowed 14 points or less in each of their last two contests.

Any team (Dallas) that allowed 17 points or more in each of their last two games, versus an opponent that scored 25 points or more in all of its previous four contests, resulted in those games going 30-6 (83.3%) under the total since 2006.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair for one of my NFL picks this week.

NFL Pick: Play on under the total of 46.0 (-105) at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837151, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here