NFL Picks: Bet Texans to Win & Cover ATS vs. Jaguars

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 15, 2015 8:08 PM GMT

The AFC South clash between the Texans and Jaguars, both 1-4 SU, features on week 6’s menu of NFL betting action. Where are the value NFL picks to be had?

Houston Texans (1-4 SU, 0-2 away)
The Texans enter week 6 NFL betting with an abysmal 1-4 SU record that includes a 0-2 away record. Fortunately for them the Jaguars strike a similarly depressing pose with a 1-4 SU record. Unfortunately for them, the Jaguars weren’t really expected to compete much this season while they were.

If there’s one observation shared unanimously, from NFL odds makers to experts and bettors alike, it’s that the Texans et al are shockingly disappointing. That the offense is in disarray isn’t surprising given how Bill O’Brien has wavered between his quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet. First naming the former as his starter only to give him the hook somewhat prematurely. Then sticking with Ryan Mallet through the subsequent four games, in spite of his league-low numbers. Such prevarication can only lead to confusion, lack of rhythm and complete and utter mistrust and uncertainty on the offensive line, not to mention the locker room.

That the defense is underwhelming is the most shocking aspect. So much for their vaunted defense that was the pet subject of NFL Films and HBO Hard Knocks. By the stats, the Texans are 14th in total defense with 1699 yards allowed. Against the pass they are tenth in the league with 225.6 yards allowed and against the rush they are a subpar 22nd in the league with 114.2 yards allowed. Most concerning of all, they are allowing 27-points against.

Texans defense was supposed to figure amongst the top five or ten in the league. The Jets, Titans, Vikings and Bears are just some of the teams that rank ahead of them in total defense.

That said things might be looking up for the Texans in week 6. Not only are they taking on a beatable side in the Jacksonville Jaguars, but also Bill O’Brien has named his starter for this Sunday…and it’s…drumroll…Brian Hoyer, who has played much better than Ryan Mallet when given the opportunity to play (against the Falcons in the last quarter and just over half of last week’s game with the Colts).

O’Brien wouldn’t commit to naming Hoyer as his starter for the foreseeable future, which could backfire yet on him. There’s nothing more that the Texans need than consistency in that key position from game-to-game. If Hoyer moves the offense as he’s been able to in the last four quarters he’s had the opportunity to play, it might be just a mere formality naming him as the No.1. Importantly, if he plays well, the pressure on the defense won’t be so great.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 SU, 1-1 home)
The Jaguars are coming off their biggest offensive account in week 5, scoring 31 points in a losing effort to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. That said they are riding a three-game losing streak and are 2-3 ATS on the season with a 10.4-point losing margin.

Granted that margin is largely skewed by the 51-17 beat down at the hands of the Patriots. If we’re to put a positive spin on things, one could argue the Jaguars bounced back after that humiliating loss with a contained and respectable 16-13 loss to the Colts and then gave the Bucs all they could in the 38-31 shootout.

Still, it’s not all that good really. Just because expectations were set low for the Jaguars on the season, should be applaud if they live up to those lowly benchmarks? The thing is this is a team that is in rebuild mode for way too long and it’s about time they get things right, don’t you think?

 

NFL Betting Verdict
NFL betting lines opened around the EVEN mark at most sportsbooks that post early NFL lines. It’s been hopping up and down ever since and it doesn’t look to be settling on any one particular number. Some books remain on EVEN odds while others are up to anything from 1, 1.5 and 2-points with the Texans to the good.

No matter the NFL odds trading on this game, we’re liking the Texans to both win straight up and cover. Their record belies the talent and depth contained on their team, and it’s about time they start playing up to their level. Brian Hoyer gets a second shot, which we think he won’t waste. Take the Texans as the NFL pick.

NFL Pick: Texans +1 at BetOnline

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