NFL Picks: Bet Texans to Cover ATS At Home vs. Chiefs

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, January 8, 2016 8:08 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 8, 2016 8:08 PM UTC

To kickoff this year’s playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to play the Houston Texans as a 3.5-point road favorite on the NFL odds board. In this article we preview this exciting game.

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NFL Pick: Texans +3.5

Best Line Offered: at Bovada


Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Houston Texans 4:35 ET
A very rare situation has evolved in the 2016 NFL Playoffs.  All 4 home teams are underdogs in the contest.  This is notable because all Wild Card home dogs are 13-9 SU, 15-6 ATS.  To kickoff this year’s playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to play the Houston Texans as a (3-) point road favorite.  Somewhat ironically, these 2 met in Week 1 of the regular season.  In that game, the Chiefs led 21-0 in the 2nd quarter, before settling for a (27-20) victory on this field.  Each of these teams finished at 9-7 SU last season leaving no recent experience edge in the playoffs.  


Kansas City Chiefs
That KC Week 1 victory was meaningful because it would not be until October 25th, when the Chiefs won at home vs. Pittsburgh that they would crack the victory column again.  But after that 1-5 SU ATS start, the Chiefs would reel off 10 consecutive victories with a (+16) net TO margin leading the way.  Before you get excited about that, note that in those 10 victories, they only outgained the opposition by an average of 11 YPG.  And for the season, they held a narrow 331-329 yardage edge.  That 10-game season ending win streak was a bit misleading, as the last 7 of those victories were all against non-playoff teams.  Nonetheless, true to HC Andy Reid form, the Chiefs would finish 4-0 SU ATS on the road.  Last week, KC closed out the regular season with a (23-17) win no cover vs. the Raiders.  They did hold a 39/189 to 16/48 overland yardage edge.  In that regard, we note the fact that teams who outrushed their opponent by 30 yards or more in a game this season were 128-47 ATS.  Teams who ran the ball 30 times or more in a game, while their opponent did not, were 130-17 ATS this season.  And, teams who ran the ball 22 times or less in a game, while their opponent did not, were 122-20 ATS PLAY AGAINST.


Houston Texans
Houston was also finishing the 2nd half of the season on a strong surge.  After beginning the year 2-5 SU ATS, Houston would finish on a 7-2 SU ATS run, losing only at Buffalo and to New England.  But much like KC, they faced only New England as a playoff opponent (a 27-6 loss) in the final half of the season.  Much like the Chiefs, Houston closed the season with a dominating overland win against Jacksonville.  They outrushed the Jags 31/160 to 14/32 and prospered from a (+3) net TO margin in a (36-6) victory.  With that pointspread victory, we note that teams who had a (+3) or more net TO margin in any NFL game this season went 42-2 ATS, good for 95% winners.  Keying that closing stretch was the superior play of QB Hoyer, whose team had just 10 giveaways in their last 11 games.  Unlike KC, they were a bit more dominant in the yardage column with a 348-310 edge for the season.  

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in playoff home dog NFL pick on the Houston Texans to kickoff this year’s 2016 NFL Playoffs.

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