NFL Picks: Bet Seahawks ATS as Packers Road Woes Continue

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, January 15, 2015 7:28 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2015 7:28 PM GMT

Green Bay travels to Seattle with the victor emerging as the NFC Champion with the right to play the Indianapolis/New England winner in the Super Bowl on February 1st.  

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle (-7-) 3:05 ET
These two teams met on this field in Week 1 of the regular season.  It was Thursday, September 4th, the first game of the year.  Seattle emerged with a 36-16 victory as 6 point favorite.   That performance was a microcosm of the numbers with which Seattle would end the season.  On that night, Seattle outrushed Green Bay 207-80, while holding the vaunted Packers’ offense to just 255 total yards. On Sunday, some 4 ½ months later, let’s go inside the numbers to see how the season has played out for each of these two teams. 

Last week, Green Bay escaped the Cowboys at Lambeau Field.  It was a game that could have gone either way as the potential leading score by the Cowboys was nullified, when a pass reception call was overturned at the goal line late in the 4th quarter.  It was a ruling that was much discussed and will no doubt lead to a change in the rule.  Now, Green Bay must leave the comfy confines of undefeated Lambeau Field to take to the road, where they are 4-4 SU, 2-5 ATS on NFL odds this season.  They are once again led by QB Rodgers, who has completed 66% of his passes with a 45/1 ratio for the season.  As is the case last week, however, an injured calf will impede his mobility.  Green Bay enters on a solid statistical run, outgaining their opponents in each of the last 9 games by an average of 113 YPG.  In that span, the Packers have averaged 32 PPG.  That unit must perform well, as they bring to Seattle a defense that has allowed 20 or more points in 7/8 recent games.

On the other side of the field will be a Seattle team who is playing the best ball of any of the 4 remaining teams.  Along with the confidence of being a defending Super Bowl Champion, Seattle has an incredibly strong home field, a dominating winning streak, the best running game in the NFL and the league’s top defense.  It will be a tough combination for Green Bay to overcome.  In the long term, Seattle has been a solid moneymaker, posting a phenomenal record of 47-18 ATS.  Since QB Wilson has taken the reins, Seattle has a record on this field of 25-2 SU, 20-6 ATS.  This year, Seattle went 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS at home.  Their excellence has been punctuated by outgaining each of their last 12 opponents.  As the momentum built, they finished the season on a 7-0 SU ATS run with every victory by 10 or more points.  In that streak, the defense was incredibly consistent as they allowed 17 or less points in each contest and helped Seattle to a statistical performance that saw them outgain their opposition by an average of 175 YPG.  As a result, Seattle enters today with a defense that allows just 16 PPG, 273 YPG and only 4.9 defensive yards per play.  All numbers are tops in the NFL!  Their ground game led by RB Lynch averages 33 carries per game to outrush the opposition by an average of 168/5.2 to 85/3.5.  This excellence has been carried over in the playoffs.  In fact, Seattle has a recent playoff run of 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS.  QB Wilson has played his best in these games with a 9/1 ratio in post-season play. 

Do not be scared off by the “hook” in this game.  Under QB Wilson, Seattle has been absolutely dominant on this field.  With the best defense and running game in the league, they are currently playing at peak performance and are definitely my NFL pick.  Way too much for a mediocre road team like Green Bay to overcome, especially one who may be fielding a gimpy-legged QB. 

Free NFL Pick: Take Seattle

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