NFL Picks: Bet Ravens to Cover ATS in High-Scoring Game vs. Chargers

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 31, 2015 5:43 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015 5:43 PM UTC

The Chargers and Ravens collide in week 8 NFL betting, both desperate to get into the win column. Join us as we preview this game and serve up our choice NFL picks.

San Diego Chargers (2-5SU, 0-3 Away)
The San Diego Chargers are crumbling under the pressure of pre-season expectations catastrophically. They are just 2-5 SU on the season, conspicuously without a road win in three outings, and are in very real danger of missing the playoffs for a second straight season, despite coming out of the pocket to lockdown Philip Rivers.

Few would have predicted the Chargers would be in such a disadvantageous position going into week 8, their season hanging in the balance. Compounded dramatically by their shocking 37-29 loss at home to divisional rivals Oakland Raiders.

Week 7’s loss to the Raiders was rather unforgivable, truth be told. The score belies the account itself as the Chargers fell behind 37-6 over three quarters, rendered to play catch up in the fourth. Although they reeled off 23 points to close the gap on the Raiders and earn a the single-digit loss, it was all just too little too late. Perhaps it was a clear case of taking for granted an opponent that has been punch-less in season’s past. Whatever the case it was, the flashpoint was that it was a home game the Chargers had to win if they were to have any hope of turning around their season.


Baltimore Ravens (1-6 SU, 0-2 Home)
The Ravens are coming off a loss to the Cardinals in Monday Night Football, slipping to a shocking 1-6 SU record on the season. To say that this isn’t the account NFL bettors expected of last season’s standout playoff contenders is an understatement. Hardly anybody saw this coming, including John Harbaugh and Company.

The Baltimore Ravens appear to have very little to play for, save for pride. Cincinnati Bengals are running away with the AFC North and the Steelers are putting in a concentrated effort in the chase. Even the Browns are sat above the Ravens with a 2-5 SU mark in third place; that is, for now.

Conspicuously, the Ravens are without a home win this season. However, in the first seven weeks of the season, they’ve only played twice at home. What that means is that they’ve had a rough schedule with five road games to start the season on, which is difficult for any team in the NFL even a good team as the Ravens are, obviously.

If there is one bright spot for the Ravens on this forgettable season it’s the fact that they’ve not been blown out in any game. Four games were lost by an average of 3.5-points; overall, they are 1-5-1 ATS on the season with an average of 3.9-point losing margin. Easily, any of those losing efforts could have gone their way and the Ravens might have been in better shape. As it is, they can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try.


NFL Betting Verdict
The Chargers have no road wins. Similarly, the Ravens have no home wins to show for their season. That’s about to change when they collide in Baltimore. Home advantage gives the Ravens the nod on the NFL betting floor as the 3-point home chalk, which is right in their win-loss margin this season. The Chargers, by contrast, are 2-5 ATS on the season with a 4.7-point losing margin, but 1-2 ATS on the road with a 9.7-losing margin. While they did lose to divisional rivals Bengals by a handful of points in a 24-19, they were defeated by the Packers 27-20 and, most significantly, the Vikings 31-14 away. The Chargers on the road don’t instil much confidence as the short 3-point road underdogs as a result.

On the merit on those stats, we’re leaning towards the Ravens at home as the 3-point home chalk, but feeling very little joy in that NFL pick as it could go either way. For those that are prevaricating with this matchup in the SU and ATS markets, perhaps going with an NFL pick on the total is the best option.

The Ravens boast a perfect 2-0 OVER record at home this season, one of the few categories where they are at the top of the league charts, but the Chargers are 0-3 in O/U betting on the road. Which side is going to determine the OVER-UNDER on this game that is trading at a high of 50-points?

Clearly, the NFL odds makers are expecting a shootout for several reasons. Rivers has been impressive lately while Flacco can put up the points. That said the Chargers have put up an average of 17.6 points on the road so far, so we are yet to see Rivers transcend on the road. The Ravens have averaged 27 points per game at home this season.

On the flip side, Chargers have conceded 27.5 points on the road and Ravens have conceded 30.5 points at home. Based on all those stats, the OVER does have a slight edge so we’re going with the OVER 50 on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Ravens -3 (-125) at Bovada and Over 50 (-110) at 5Dimes

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