NFL Picks: Bet Patriots & Colts to Go 'Under' 55 Despite What Recent Betting Trends Suggest

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 7:46 PM GMT

The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 New England Patriots-Indianapolis Colts games, so how should we place our NFL picks on Sunday night, with Andrew Luck's status still uncertain?

With Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck nursing a Shoulder injury and having missed the last two games, can we expect the usual shootout between these two AFC powerhouses on Sunday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in primetime?

Let’s take a look at the Final Scores from the last 10 games in this high-profile series and try to figure out if the Oddsmakers have made this Total too high or too low and provide an NFL pick from our findings. And with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Phillip Dorsett, Luck and Andre Johnson, there will be more than enough guys willing to put the old pigskin in the air or catch it in Naptown.

 

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 6—New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Time: 8:30 p.m. EDT/5:30 p.m. PDT

TV: NBC

Radio: SiriusXM  >Colts—SIRI 93 (Internet 813), Patriots—SIRI 83 (Internet 818)

Weather: Mostly Clear Sky, Low 39°, Winds SSE 5-10 mph, 49% Relative Humidity

Note: Lucas Oil Stadium has a Retractable Dome

Current Low Point Spread: Patriots -7 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, CGT, Pinnacle)

Current High Point Spread: Patriots -9½ NFL odds (SportsInteraction)

Money Line: Patriots -350, Colts +290 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Lowest Total in Marketplace: 55 (Pretty much everywhere Monday)

Highest Total in Marketplace: 56 (Sportsbook.ag)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The big question here will be the availability of Andrew Luck for the Indianapolis Colts, and the news out of Naptown on Monday afternoon was that Luck was a full participant in the team’s practice. This is good news for Indianapolis and after sitting out 2 weeks with a bad Shoulder, Luck may be able to start and play here in one of the marquee games on the 2015/16 Regular Season schedule. Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano reportedly said that Luck “looked good,” so with the game still 6 days away, we can probably assume Luck will be ready for this one, especially with the Colts sitting at 3-2.

Tom Brady (64-44-1 ATS on Road) and the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have already put up and AFC-high 149 points in just 4 games, and seem to be playing Arena Football Fast and Deflategate BS Mad and simply trying to outscore their opponents quickly like the game itself is a nuisance. On Sunday afternoon in Week 5 action, the Patriots defeated the Tony Romo-less Dallas Cowboys, 30-6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as Brady (20/27, 275 yards, 2 TDs) kept New England undefeated, while on Thursday night in Texas, the Colts escaped with a 27-20 victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in Houston as backup QB Matt Hasselbeck (18/29, 213 yards, 2 TDs) and former Texans WR Andre Johnson (6 receptions, 77 yards, 2 TDs) haunted his old teammates in his old stomping grounds. Can you hear me now?

The last time these two AFC rivals played was that famous Deflategate AFC Championship Game in New England last season, where the Patriots corralled the Colts, 45-7, easily covering the 7-point spread. New England is 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. the Colts and 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings here in Indianapolis, dating back to the days when Peyton Manning was still the Colts QB. Here are the Final Scores from the last 10 meetings between the Colts and the Patriots, along with the posted Totals and whether or not each game went Over, Under or Pushed the Total. For not being in the same division, these two progressive AFC teams certainly bang helmets an awful lot.

 

Totals Results in the L10 Meetings — Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots
2014—@ Patriots 45 Colts 7 (AFC Playoffs)
Total: 52
Result: Push

2014—Patriots 42 @ Colts 20 
Total: 58
Result: Over

2013—@ Patriots 43 Colts 22 (AFC Playoffs)
Total: 51
Result: Over

2012—@ Patriots 59 Colts 24 
Total: 54
Result: Over (Patriots Over by themselves)

2011—@ Patriots 31 @ Colts 24 
Total: 48
Result: Over

2010—@ Patriots 31 Colts 28 
Total: 49½
Result: Over

2009—@ Colts 35 Patriots 34 
Total: 48½
Result: Over

2008—@ Colts 18 Patriots 15 
Total: 44
Result: Under

2007—Patriots 24 @ Colts 20 
Total: 57
Result: Under

2007—@ Colts 38 Patriots 34 (AFC Playoffs)
Total: 47½ 
Result: Over

 

Series Trends & Game Expectations
The Final Scores for the L10 meetings between these two pass-happy AFC teams shows a tally of 7 Overs, 2 Unders and 1 Push a definitely distinct high-scoring pattern with 8 of the L11 meetings actually going Over (The Patriots have W6 straight.) And when you have QBs like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck behind Center, the Under is usually in trouble from the get-go. But that was Then and this is Now and our job here is to try to figure out if the posted Total makes any sense.

And in this particular game we must also worry about Emotions in the context of New England possibly wanting to run up the score (if it can) because the Indianapolis Colts were the ones involved in the whole low PSI football mess and maybe the Patriots feel their payback for being ratted out is a 57-7 final? Still, that theoretical and humor-driven prediction would only go over by 9 points. So maybe this number is a tad high? Three of the above 10 Colts-Patriots games were Playoff games, and in the Postseason, teams have that leave-it-all-on-the field mentality, and if they get behind, they Pass almost every play.

Two of the Postseason meetings saw 65 and 72 points. And another thing to think about is the game-time Fall temperatures in Indianapolis which could be in the high 30’s, or in a word, Chilly, and the type of  temperature where holding, gripping and catching footballs begins to get much harder. And colder footballs are more difficult to catch, throw and also kick. All theoretically good for the Under.

The New England Patriots (+150 to win AFC, bet365) should score between 27-42 points here, while the Colts (+700 to win AFC, bet365) should get between 13 and 30. Indianapolis is 2-3 O/U so far this season, while the Patriots are 2-2 O/U, but the above scores reveal a much different pace to this series. But then again, this Patriots sides played worse Defense than they do now and the Colts had Peyton Manning slinging in his prime. If he starts, Luck will be tentative with his bad Shoulder and the Offensive Coordinator  will be calling more conservative plays as to not get the franchise’s Golden Boy hurt anymore than he already is.

This is good for the Under and a more precise, controlled pace (when the Colts have possession). And if Hasselbeck goes, well, it’s a backup QB going up against an unbeaten defending Super Bowl champion team mad about Deflategate. Nothing big,

The Patriots' Defense has held opponents to 21, 32, 17 and 6 points in their 4 games this season and 19 of the Bills’ 32 points in Week 3 came in the 4th Quarter with Tyrod Taylor and the Bills trying to rally back from a 37-13 deficit at Ralph Wilson Stadium. New England’s D ranks #8 in Points Allowed (19 ppg). But probably the two biggest reasons the Under is the call here is the Total (55, 56) has been set so darn high and it will almost take everything to go right to get there, and if the Patriots continue to do what they have done in their first four games—get out to a double-digit lead at Halftime (hint, hint) and then sort of just chill as much as they can in the 2nd Half, means the Patriots could do the same here and if Luck is hurt or frustrated, then Indianapolis may be quick to lick its wounds and just chill, even knowing a 3-3 record may be the end result.

Playing in the AFC South does have its advantages. And, it you do plan on backing the Under here on Sunday evening, maybe wait to see if it creeps up some (56, 56½, 57) as popular primetime games almost always tend to do so as John Q. Public tends to bet the favorites and the overs and that definitely won’t be a hard sell in this game.

Predicted Final Score: New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

NFL Picks: Under 55 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837083, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]