NFL Picks: Bet Packers (-3) to Bounce Back vs. Lions Thursday Night

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 3, 2015 6:46 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 3, 2015 6:46 PM UTC

The Packers & Lions face off tonight to kick off Week 13 of NFL betting with a Thursday Night Primetime showdown.  Despite their recent slip we're making Green Bay our NFL Pick tongiht. 

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions 8:25 ET NFL NTWK
Much of the public agrees that Green Bay will get a bounce back revenge win and end the nonsense that is the Lions’ 3-0 SU ATS run.  But, every once in a while the public is correct!  From a value perspective, it would certainly seem to be the case, as Green Bay was a 12 point favorite just 3 weeks ago, when Detroit visited Lambeau Field and won for the first time in 24 visits (18-16).   That game was in the midst of a Green Bay slide which since their bye week October 25th has seen them go 1-4 SU ATS.  That victory, however, came at a bounce back spot following the Detroit loss, when they handled an 8-3 SU Minnesota team by a count of (30-13) in Vikingville!   All of this nonsense for Green Bay started after they began the season on a 5-0 SU ATS run.  Now, the Packers have the No. 5 seed in the NFC and are clinging to a Wild Card.  The urgency is certainly there, as despite the victory over Minnesota, they trail the Vikings by a game for the divisional lead. Good news for the Packers is that there does not seem to be any panic among the ranks. Their (17-13) home loss on Thanksgiving Day to Chicago came despite the fact that the Packers outrushed Chicago 177-101.  Rodgers and company enter the game knowing they are 14-6 ATS as division road favorite.

The mentality of this contest is certainly far different from when Detroit went to Green Bay 3 short weeks ago.  It was at that point, following their 7th straight loss by a count of (45-10) to KC in London, that an upper management house cleaning took place.  It certainly looked like HC Caldwell and QB Stafford had their heads on the chopping block as well!  But, the Detroit (18-16) upset of Green Bay has sparked a 3-0 SU ATS surge in which Detroit has allowed just 14 PPG (after allowing 37 PPG in their previous 4 outings).  The culmination of that 3-game streak came Thanksgiving Day in a (45-14) rout of the Philadelphia Eagles, who sure looked like they tanked the game for soon to be departing HC Kelly.  Detroit will have good vibes from the last 2 meetings on this field vs. Green Bay, knowing they defeated the Packers by a combined score of 59-17. 

Credit Detroit for the 3-0 SU ATS run after 7 consecutive losses!  But, the reduced price on Green Bay puts the NFL Odds in our favor, as we line up with the Green Bay Packers as our NFL Pick in a revenge/bounce back mode to re-establish themselves as a meaningful playoff contender.  Can the loss of WR Jordy Nelson really be that impactful on the Green Bay offense?

NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers -3 (+105) at BetOnline

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