NFL Picks: Bet Packers (+1) as Rare Underdogs Against Vikings

Steven Suarez

Thursday, November 19, 2015 2:34 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 2:34 PM GMT

The Packers were just upset by the Lions at home and now face a seemingly more difficult matchup on the road vs. Adrian Peterson & the Vikings. Let's break down the NFL odds for this NFC showdown.

Odds Overview
Not very often do you see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers classified as underdogs, but that's what we have on the cards for Week 11. Green Bay is a one-point dog on the NFL odds board, with the team's recent setbacks causing a shift in public perception.

When we look at the total, we see a fairly modest total of 44.5 points available for action.

 

Minnesota Vikings
Behind a workhorse running back, steady quarterback play and great defense, the Vikings have managed to win five games in a row, and they've thus moved to 7-2 on the season. They're in first place in the division as a result, and that means they'll be full of confidence when they host the Packers this Sunday.

Minnesota has been getting great production out of Adrian Peterson, who's already run for 961 yards and seven rushing scores in addition to recording 138 receiving yards. He's been at the core of the Vikings' offensive success, and it doesn't hurt that Bridgewater has done a nice job of avoiding mistakes and playing solid football.

But it may be the defense that's been most impressive. The Vikings are allowing just 18.1 points per game, which is the second-lowest mark in all of the NFL. They're certainly going to need to be that good this weekend versus one of the best QBs out there.

 

Green Bay Packers
After going into their bye week with a spotless 6-0 record, everyone was talking up the Packers as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. That chatter has certainly died down over the last month or so, as Green Bay has lost three in a row to drop to 6-3 overall. It's strange not to see the Packers atop the division, instead left looking up at Week 11's opponent, Minnesota (7-2).

Road losses against Denver and Carolina weren't all that bad considering the tough circumstances in difficult matchups, but last week's home loss to a Detroit team that's been a big letdown this season was a major shock. The Packers mounted a valiant comeback in the closing minutes, but ultimately fell short after failing to convert a two-point conversion that would have sent the game into overtime.

So here we are. Green Bay is in desperate need of a victory, admist the team's struggles and fair questions about what's going wrong. But, we don't anticipate the struggles lasting much longer, as a team like the Packers are always going to be near the top for as long as Rodgers is healthy and this productive.

 

ATS Pick
Everyone seems down on the Packers right now, which means it's the perfect opportunity to capitalize on that fear and get a chance to back a great team at a depressed number.

Don't get us wrong. Green Bay deserves to be the underdog based on how poorly they've been playing, and Minnesota has been a lot better than people thought they'd be. But the Packers are still the Packers, and they still have one of the game's best quarterbacks leading the way. What's more, they're reasonably healthy now that Davante Adams is back, and even with Eddie Lacy disappointing in a major way this season, this offense has still proven to be potent.

We're not worried about Green Bay, in spite of the losing streak, as the schedule gets much more friendly as the regular season comes to a close, meaning this team should be able to right the ship. Stopping AP from going off will be key, and if the Packers can do so, we like their chances of avoiding a fourth consecutive loss.

NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers +1 at Bovada

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