NFL Picks: Bet Lions at Value Price of +12 vs. Packers

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 14, 2015 1:22 AM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015 1:22 AM GMT

We look at Sunday's NFC North matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers and offer our Lone Ranger NFL pick of the Week.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-12) 1:00 EST
The Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers for this 1:00 ET start, as each team begins the second half of the season. The Lions, after an 11-6 playoff season of last, enter with an NFL worst record of 1-7 SU ATS. When they last played two weeks ago, they lost 45-10 to Kansas City in London. Like Detroit, Green Bay enters on a two game losing streak. Those two losses, however, were on the road to Carolina and Denver, two of the better NFL teams who have a combined record of 15-1 SU. If you suspect the public money is going to Green Bay for a bounce back effort against the lowly Lions, you are absolutely right. And, once you read the statistics which have pushed the public to that decision, you will know why you, I, and the Lone Ranger are one of the few NFL bettors who will be backing the Lions this Sunday. 

 

Stats to Consider
Consider some of the stats with which the public has been inundated this week regarding the Green Bay Packers. They now know that Green Bay has owned this series, especially on this field, where they stand 17-5 ATS. They also know that Green Bay is a long term 37-18 ATS in divisional play. More specifically, QB Aaron Rodgers is 13-2 SU ATS vs division foes when Green Bay lost the previous game. Finally, Green Bay is 17-2 ATS when playing off consecutive road games. The public sees hope with the strong finish by Green Bay last week. Trailing Carolina 37-14, the Packers closed at 37-29 with a chance to tie the game in the waning moments.

As if that is not enough for the public, consider the negatives that they now know about Detroit. The Lions have lost 24 straight games at Green Bay by an average of 12 PPG. In the course of a 1-7 SU ATS start, the defense has caved, allowing 37 PPG in the last four contests. There is only one spread win for the Lions in their last 11 starts, and they have rushed for more than 80 yards only once this season. In fact, the running game is the worst in the league, averaging only 19 carries per game for 70/3.7 overland yards. A 31 PPG defense allowing 6.2 DYP play is also among the worst in the league. Like either of these people took one snap on the field this year, the 90 year old owner of the Lions has now fired the president and GM. No doubt, HC Caldwell will be next! 

Knowing the above, I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor with my NFL pick on the Detroit Lions as the Lone Ranger game of the week. Today’s victory in this game will push the record to 8-1 ATS for the season on our NFL Lone Ranger Game of the Week.

NFL Picks: Lions +12 at 5Dimes

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