NFL Picks: Bet Jaguars vs. Buccaneers to Go 'Under' Despite Low Total

Jason Lake

Friday, October 9, 2015 7:34 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 7:34 PM GMT

What happens when you put two of the worst offenses in the league together? You get the lowest total on the NFL odds board for Week 5 – and people still like the UNDER.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 10: 17-9 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 10-14 Total

So here we are at the three-quarters pole of the 2015 regular season. How are Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doing so far? Not well. The Bucs are 1-3 SU and ATS, they've got the worst-ranked offense in the league at Football Outsiders, and Winston (six TD passes, seven INTs) is last among quarterbacks with –233 passing DYAR. He's shown some occasional flashes of promise, but that's about it.

And how about Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars? Bortles was last in passing DYAR during his rookie campaign, but this is his first full season as the starting QB, and improvements have been made – Bortles is all the way up to replacement-level at +21 passing DYAR, and the Jags (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) have the No. 22-ranked offense in the league. That's up from No. 31 last year. Maybe this can happen with Winston and the Bucs, too. Baby steps.

 

Logan's Plums
That's about as positive as we can get for Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) at Raymond James Stadium. Ugly? No doubt. There's a total of 42 points on the NFL odds board, the lowest total available at press time, and our consensus reports show 56 percent of bettors taking the UNDER. Seems reasonable. It's a bit of a low total, but not a deal-breaker.

Let's run down our checklist. Weather report? A 20-percent chance of rain at kick-off, at the tail end of what could develop into thunderstorms. That's good for our cause. Injury report? Bucs LG Logan Mankins was held out of Thursday's practice with a groin issue, joining center Evan Smith (ankle) and others on the sidelines. And it doesn't look like Jags TE Julius Thomas (hand) will be ready to make his season debut this week. Excellent.

 

Get Your Dirty Poz Off of Me
While everyone's fretting over how poor these two offenses are, both Tampa Bay and Jacksonville have made some strides on defense. The Bucs rank No. 15 overall (No. 18 pass, No. 16 rush) in defensive efficiency, while the Jags aren't far behind at No. 18 overall (No. 25 pass, No. 4 rush). That's up a few notches for both teams compared to last year.

There's one injury on the Jaguars defense we're worried about, though. LB Paul Posluszny (ankle) is considered questionable after getting hurt in last week's 16-13 overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts (UNDER 43). Posluszny is the heart and soul of the Jacksonville defense. If he can't go, rookie Thurston Armbrister will get the call. This is a high-ankle sprain, so Posluszny is in danger of missing this game after not practicing Thursday. We'll stick with the UNDER for a very small wager with our NFL picks, but as always, caveat emptor.

NFL Picks: Take UNDER 42 (–110) at 5Dimes

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