NFL Picks: Bet Dolphins to Cover Short Spread vs. Lowly Redskins

Swinging Johnson

Friday, September 11, 2015 5:55 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 11, 2015 5:55 PM GMT

The Dolphins think they have what it takes to make a serious run in the postseason while the Redskins are simply trying to be respectable. Let’s analyze the Week 1 NFL odds & add to our bankroll.

Are the Redskins an Auto Fade?
When you make your list of NFL power rankings only the most incorrigible Redskins’ fan would rank them higher than 28th of 32 teams while many would put them at the bottom of the basement. They are a bad team that doesn’t seem to be doing much of anything to get better and are now hanging their hats on Kirk Cousins to command an offense that the Washington brass thought would be led by Robert Griffin III for a decade or more. What they didn’t factor into the equation was RG3’s inability to stay healthy which has also led to a discernible drop in his production.

As the ‘Skins suit up for the 2015 season it’s hard to find a silver lining other than the fact that they have made a definitive statement by declaring Kirk Cousins the starter for the season as opposed to the starter until RG3 is healthy. Cousins can throw and he can be dynamic but he also has a penchant for poor decisions and turnovers. Yet he now has the luxury of the starting job all to himself without trying to make too much happen in order to prove he belongs. However the offensive line that has been entrusted to protect him has been at times downright offensive.

Defensively they have changed coordinators with Joe Barry taking the reins and brought in six new starters while signing edge rushing threat Ryan Kerrigan to a multi-year pact. Kerrigan had his knee scoped in June and was held out of the preseason as a precautionary measure. We shall see if this retooled unit is any better than last season’s.

 

NFL Pick
Offensively the Dolphins should find smooth sailing over the middle and along the sidelines as long as Ryan Tannehill is on his game. The Redskins’ pass defense intimidates no one so the passing attack should be on full display from the Miami offense. Washington’s retooled unit should, and I stress the word should, be more capable than last in terms of stopping the run but as long as Miami can move the chains through the air they will merely set up the run with the pass.

The real challenge for Washington will be keeping a tenacious defensive front from wreaking havoc on a weak offensive line. Kirk Cousins does have mobility which will serve him well here but a team can’t win when the quarterback is constantly running for his life and unable to connect with his targets. Unless Cousins has improved mightily we cannot rule out his proclivity towards turning over the football be it via interceptions or fumbles. If there is one team that can induce panic it is in fact the Miami defense and that could be more of a problem for Washington’s chances than the Dolphins’ offense.

Below are a few stats to consider:

  • Washington Redskins are 10-22 ATS over the past two seasons

  • Washington Redskins are 8-17 ATS as an underdog in NFL odds over the past two seasons.

  • Washington Redskins are 6-18 ATS in all games where the total is between 42 ½ and 49 points.

  • Washington Redskins are 7-15 ATS in September home games since 2001.

     

Final Analysis
In short, it doesn’t look like the ‘Skins are getting enough points to warrant a play on the home dog here. While I wouldn’t advise a bet-the-rent pick on a middling team like the Dolphins on the road they are worth a low unit play in this spot.

NFL Pick: Miami -3 (-115) at GTBets

 

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