NFL Picks: Bet Dolphins (+9) to Cover vs. Patriots Thursday Night

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 29, 2015 4:58 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 4:58 PM GMT

NFL Thursday Night Football bring us a real juicy matchup whn the Dolphins visit Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxboro tonight.  Let's pick the odds & trends apart and make some winning NFL Picks.

Miami at New England (-9-/51) 8:25 ET CBS
A resurgent Miami team travels to New England, where they will face the undefeated Patriots.  It is at this Foxboro site that the Patriots have had great history.  New England is 22-1 SU on this field of late.  The homer is on a 29-9 ATS run in Patriots’ games.  In this series, New England has won 14 of the previous 16 on this field, including by an average score of 32-10 the last 3 games.  Tonight’s conundrum is whether the undefeated record of the Patriots continues on a strong home field or whether the vastly improved Miami Dolphins can slide inside this number.  

There is no question that the Patriots are making a point this season, after being exonerated in the Deflategate case.  As with other accusations against New England by the league, the organization feels they are targeted for their success.  It has proven to be a major motivational tool, particularly for QB Brady and a New England offense.  For the season, they have averaged 36 PPG, 411 YPG and 6.5 YP play (2nd best in the league).  In last week’s contest against New England, a (30-23) win no cover, the Achilles Heel surfaced for New England.  They ran the ball only 9 times for only 16 yards.  Even with Brady at the helm, it is very hard to consistently win in the NFL with that lack of offensive balance.  After New England started 3-0-1 ATS, including 3 blowout victories, they have allowed a pair of opponents (Indy and the NY Jets) to get back door covers against them, each of the last 2 weeks.  That means 3 of their 6 victories are by exactly 7 points.  Miami gets the money should that happen again.

***Dolphins vs. Patriots Thursday Night Betting Preview***
***Dolphins vs. Patriots Thursday Night Total Pick***
***Dolphins Player Props for Thursday Night Football***
***Patriots Player Props for Thursday Night Football***


 

There is no greater turnaround story in the NFL this season than that of the Miami Dolphins.  In the first 4 games of the season, Miami played like a team who wanted to get their coach fired!  They were 1-3 SU ATS, after playing a lethargic game against the Jets in London.  Wish granted!  Out was former HC Philbin; in is new HC Campbell, the former TE coach.  The mantra is now “tough love” but with a 100% positive attitude.  Before revealing the numbers inside the turnaround, let’s note that it came against Houston and Tennessee, a pair of teams who are 3-10 SU for the season.  Nonetheless, it has been impressive!  After 4 games, Miami was being outrushed 37/161 to 16/69.  They were being outgained 400-315.  All areas of the team have improved in the resounding victories of the last 2 weeks, which have seen Miami outscore Houston and Tennessee (82-36), posting huge early leads in each game.  Miami has averaged 469 total yards in each of those games, while allowing their opponents to run for just 67 YPG.  After recording just 1 sack in the first 4 games, the Dolphins’ defensive front has recorded 10 sacks in the last 2 games.   Last week, they dominated Houston at the line of scrimmage, outrushing the Texans 35/248 to 25/71.

But, the public is not buying the Miami turnaround.  They are still enamored with the Patriots’ undefeated season and the passing show being authored by QB Brady.  As a result, I invite you to put the NFL Odds in your favor and take the generous number with a surging Miami team, who will be our NFL Pick in Thursday Night Football.

NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins +9 (-120) at The Greek

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